Space Weather Observations, Alerts, and Forecast
3-day Solar-Geophysical Forecast issued Jun 05 22:00 UTC
Solar Activity Forecast:
Solar activity is expected to remain very low with only a slight chance for an isolated C-class flare.
Geophysical Activity Forecast:
The geomagnetic field is expected to remain mostly quiet with isolated periods of unsettled conditions on day 1 (6 June) due to elevated solar wind speeds and brief periods of Bz south. Quiet to unsettled with intermittent periods of active conditions are expected on days 2 and 3 (7-8 June). The increase in activity is due in part to weak coronal hole effects expected on 7 June as well as the possible arrival of a slow moving CME on 8 June. The CME is from a filament that disappeared on 3 June. A weak halo can be observed on LASCO C3 coronagraph images from early 4 June as well as STEREO A and B coronagraphs from the same period.
Real Time Images of the Sun
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SOHO EIT 304 |
SOHO EIT 284 |
Mauna Loa Solar Image
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The sun is constantly monitored for sun spots and coronal mass ejections. EIT (Extreme ultraviolet Imaging Telescope) images the solar atmosphere at several wavelengths, and therefore, shows solar material at different temperatures. In the images taken at 304 Angstrom the bright material is at 60,000 to 80,000 degrees Kelvin. In those taken at 171 Angstrom, at 1 million degrees. 195 Angstrom images correspond to about 1.5 million Kelvin, 284 Angstrom to 2 million degrees. The hotter the temperature, the higher you look in the solar atmosphere.
Real Time Solar X-ray and Solar Wind
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Solar Cycle Progression Solar Cycle chart updated using the latest ISES predictions. |
Real-Time Solar Wind Real-Time Solar Wind data broadcast from NASA's ACE satellite. |
The Solar Cycle is observed by counting the frequency and placement of sunspots visible on the Sun. Solar minimum occurred in December, 2008. Solar maximum is expected to occur in May, 2013.
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Solar X-ray Flux This plot shows 3-days of 5-minute solar x-ray flux values measured on the SWPC primary and secondary GOES satellites. |
Satellite Environment Plot The Satellite Environment Plot combines satellite and ground-based data to provide an overview of the current geosynchronous satellite environment. |
Auroral Activity Extrapolated from NOAA POES
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Northern Hemi Auroral Map |
Southern Hemi Auroral Map |
Instruments on board the NOAA Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite (POES) continually monitor the power flux carried by the protons and electrons that produce aurora in the atmosphere. SWPC has developed a technique that uses the power flux observations obtained during a single pass of the satellite over a polar region (which takes about 25 minutes) to estimate the total power deposited in an entire polar region by these auroral particles. The power input estimate is converted to an auroral activity index that ranges from 1 to 10.
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. Updated 2012 Feb 03 2200 UTC Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 034 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Feb 2012 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: Solar activity was at very low levels. The disk and limb was quiet and stable with no Earth-directed CMEs observed during the period. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low to low for the next three days (04 - 06 February). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels with isolated high latitude active periods due to the waning effects of a geoeffective coronal hole high speed stream. During the period, ACE satellite observations indicated wind speeds averaged about 425 km/s while the Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field varied between +/- 5 nT. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at mostly quiet levels for the next three days (04 - 06 February). III. Event Probabilities 04 Feb-06 Feb Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF Green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 03 Feb 111 Predicted 04 Feb-06 Feb 110/110/105 90 Day Mean 03 Feb 141 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 02 Feb 003/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Feb 006/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Feb-06 Feb 004/005-005/005-004/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Feb-06 Feb A. Middle Latitudes Active 10/05/05 Minor storm 01/01/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/10/10 Minor storm 01/01/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01
Photo compliments of NOAA
Credits:
Space Weather Images and Information (excluded from copyright) courtesy of: NOAA / NWS Space Weather Prediction Center, Mauna Loa Solar Observatory (HAO/NCAR), and SOHO (ESA & NASA).Space Weather links:
3-Day Forecast of Solar and Geophysical Activity
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