Space Weather Observations, Alerts, and Forecast
3-day Solar-Geophysical Forecast issued Jun 05 22:00 UTC
Solar Activity Forecast:
Solar activity is expected to remain very low with only a slight chance for an isolated C-class flare.
Geophysical Activity Forecast:
The geomagnetic field is expected to remain mostly quiet with isolated periods of unsettled conditions on day 1 (6 June) due to elevated solar wind speeds and brief periods of Bz south. Quiet to unsettled with intermittent periods of active conditions are expected on days 2 and 3 (7-8 June). The increase in activity is due in part to weak coronal hole effects expected on 7 June as well as the possible arrival of a slow moving CME on 8 June. The CME is from a filament that disappeared on 3 June. A weak halo can be observed on LASCO C3 coronagraph images from early 4 June as well as STEREO A and B coronagraphs from the same period.
Real Time Images of the Sun
SOHO EIT 304
SOHO EIT 284
Mauna Loa Solar Image
The sun is constantly monitored for sun spots and coronal mass ejections. EIT (Extreme ultraviolet Imaging Telescope) images the solar atmosphere at several wavelengths, and therefore, shows solar material at different temperatures. In the images taken at 304 Angstrom the bright material is at 60,000 to 80,000 degrees Kelvin. In those taken at 171 Angstrom, at 1 million degrees. 195 Angstrom images correspond to about 1.5 million Kelvin, 284 Angstrom to 2 million degrees. The hotter the temperature, the higher you look in the solar atmosphere.
Real Time Solar X-ray and Solar Wind
Solar Cycle Progression
Solar Cycle chart updated using the latest ISES predictions.
Real-Time Solar Wind
Real-Time Solar Wind data broadcast from NASA's ACE satellite.
The Solar Cycle is observed by counting the frequency and placement of sunspots visible on the Sun. Solar minimum occurred in December, 2008. Solar maximum is expected to occur in May, 2013.
Solar X-ray Flux
This plot shows 3-days of 5-minute solar x-ray flux values measured on the SWPC primary and secondary GOES satellites.
Satellite Environment Plot
The Satellite Environment Plot combines satellite and ground-based data to provide an overview of the current geosynchronous satellite environment.
Auroral Activity Extrapolated from NOAA POES
Northern Hemi Auroral Map
Southern Hemi Auroral Map
Instruments on board the NOAA Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite (POES) continually monitor the power flux carried by the protons and electrons that produce aurora in the atmosphere. SWPC has developed a technique that uses the power flux observations obtained during a single pass of the satellite over a polar region (which takes about 25 minutes) to estimate the total power deposited in an entire polar region by these auroral particles. The power input estimate is converted to an auroral activity index that ranges from 1 to 10.
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. Updated 2014 Apr 18 2200 UTC Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 108 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Apr 2014 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: Solar activity reached high levels. Region 2036 (S16W41, Dhc/beta-gamma) produced an M7 flare at 18/1303 UTC, which was the largest flare of the period. It was accompanied by a Tenflare (1000 sfu), a Castelli-U signature, as well as Type II (851 km/s) and Type IV radio emissions. An asymmetric halo CME was subsequently observed in SOHO/LASCO C2 coronagraph imagery at 18/1325 UTC. Analysis suggested the ejecta was moving at approximately 1000 km/s and Earth-directed. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (19 Apr, 20 Apr, 21 Apr). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 540 km/s at 18/1845Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 18/0207Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 18/0243Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 38 pfu at 18/1955Z. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (19 Apr) and quiet to minor storm levels on days two and three (20 Apr, 21 Apr) with a chance for major storm levels on day two (20 Apr). Protons are expected to remain above the 10 pfu threshold on day one (19 Apr), are expected to cross threshold on day two (20 Apr) and have a chance of crossing threshold on day three (21 Apr). III. Event probabilities 19 Apr-21 Apr Class M 60/60/60 Class X 10/10/10 Proton 99/75/50 PCAF yellow IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 18 Apr 172 Predicted 19 Apr-21 Apr 175/175/175 90 Day Mean 18 Apr 156 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 17 Apr 011/011 Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Apr 007/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Apr-21 Apr 009/012-018/025-017/020 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Apr-21 Apr A. Middle Latitudes Active 40/40/40 Minor Storm 15/35/25 Major-severe storm 01/10/05 B. High Latitudes Active 10/05/05 Minor Storm 25/20/20 Major-severe storm 55/75/60
Photo compliments of NOAA
Credits:Space Weather Images and Information (excluded from copyright) courtesy of: NOAA / NWS Space Weather Prediction Center, Mauna Loa Solar Observatory (HAO/NCAR), and SOHO (ESA & NASA).
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