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ALL SPC Mesoscale Analysis Curently in Effect
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No watches are valid as of Mon May 29 09:02:01 UTC 2017.No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Mon May 29 09:02:01 UTC 2017.SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Outlook Image
Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1256 AM CDT Mon May 29 2017

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHEAST...

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS TO THE MID-ATLANTIC...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible from the Texas Gulf
Coast to the Carolinas, with the highest potential likely from
northern Georgia eastward. The primary threat with these severe
storms will be damaging winds, with a few instances of large hail
possible as well.

...Synopsis...
Surrounding a rather large closed cyclone centered over the upper
Great Lakes and western Ontario, broad cyclonic flow will encompass
much of the northern/central Plains and Midwest. To its south, a
series of impulses, some convectively enhanced, will be embedded in
a corridor of west/southwesterly flow from northern Mexico to the
Mid-Atlantic. Farther west, an amplified ridge will remain
positioned over much of the Intermountain West.

...Portions of the Southeast...
While upstream convection may spread cloud cover across parts of the
region today, portions of northern Georgia and points east will
likely realize adequate boundary-layer heating. With surface dew
points generally in the mid/upper 60s, this heating will promote
modest mixed-layer CAPE, upwards of 1000 J/kg or so.  Furthermore,
this area will be on the fringe of stronger west/southwesterly
mid-level flow stretching from the Tennessee Valley to the
Mid-Atlantic, resulting in effective shear around 30-40 kt. While
synoptic-scale forcing for ascent will likely be nebulous at best,
guidance suggests the potential for an MCV/weak impulse to eject
eastward from overnight/morning convection, reaching northern
Alabama/Georgia near peak heating. As such, thunderstorms may be
focused along/ahead of such a feature during the afternoon/evening
hours. With the aforementioned shear profile, these storms will
likely take the form of multicells (with perhaps brief updraft
rotation), capable of a few damaging winds gusts and large hail.
Over time, relatively straight hodographs will likely promote an
evolution to small bowing segments, with the primary hazard becoming
strong/damaging winds.

...South Texas to the central Gulf Coast...
Widespread convection is evolving across the region late this
evening, with a slow east/southeastward propagation towards the
coast. Despite this convection, surface dew points generally remain
in the mid/upper 60s to lower 70s behind ongoing storms. Thus,
weak/modest boundary layer heating will likely be sufficient for
pockets of thunderstorm re-development during the day, with cells
focused along residual outflow boundaries. While deep-layer shear
will be quite marginal, the warm/moist environment may favor strong
wind gusts and a few instances of small to near-severe hail.

..Picca/Dean.. 05/29/2017

  SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Outlook Image
Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1255 AM CDT Mon May 29 2017

Valid 301200Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHEAST...

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE GULF COAST STATES...GEORGIA AND CAROLINAS...

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS INTO WESTERN MISSOURI...

...SUMMARY...
Marginally severe thunderstorms with strong wind gusts and hail will
be possible on Tuesday across parts of the Northeast and from
central and eastern Kansas into western Missouri. Marginally severe
thunderstorms with strong wind gusts will also be possible across
parts of the Gulf Coast States into Georgia and the Carolinas.

...Northeast...
An upper-level trough will move eastward into the Great Lakes on
Tuesday. At the surface, a trough is forecast to move eastward
across the Northeast. A narrow corridor of low-level moisture is
forecast to be present ahead of the surface trough with dewpoints
from the lower 60s F in eastern Pennsylvania to the mid 50s F in
eastern New York. This should result in a weak corridor of
instability by midday. Thunderstorms are forecast to develop along
the surface trough and move eastward into eastern New York and
eastern Pennsylvania during the afternoon. In spite of weak
instability, GFS forecast soundings from Baltimore northward into
the Hudson River Valley at 21Z on Tuesday show 0-6 km shear in the
50 to 55 kt range. This should be enough for strong thunderstorms
with marginally severe wind gusts. The threat could be greater if
more instability develops than is currently forecast.

...Gulf Coast States/Georgia/Eastern Carolinas...
West-southwesterly mid-level flow is forecast on Tuesday across the
Southeast as an upper-level trough moves through the Mississippi
Valley. A moist airmass should be in place across much of the Gulf
Coast region east-northeastward into the Carolinas. Surface
dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s F along with diurnal heating
should allow for the development of scattered thunderstorms from the
central Gulf Coast east-northeastward into southern Georgia and the
eastern Carolinas. A marginal wind damage threat may develop along
this corridor during the afternoon when low-level lapse rates are
forecast to be steepest.

...Central and Eastern Kansas/Western Missouri...
A shortwave trough is forecast to move southeastward into the
north-central states on Tuesday as a cold front advances southward
into northern Kansas and northern Missouri. Surface dewpoints ahead
of the front should be in the 50s F resulting in weak instability by
afternoon. Thunderstorms are forecast to initiate along the front
and move southeastward across eastern Kansas and western Missouri.
In spite of weak instability, forecast soundings in eastern Kansas
for 00Z/Wednesday show moderate deep-layer shear and relatively cold
mid-level temperatures. This may be enough for a marginal hail
threat. A few strong wind gusts will also be possible.

..Broyles.. 05/29/2017

  SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Outlook Image
Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0221 AM CDT Mon May 29 2017

Valid 311200Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHEAST...SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND CENTRAL PLAINS...

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Marginally severe thunderstorms with strong wind gusts and hail will
be possible across parts of the Northeast, central Appalachians, mid
Mississippi Valley and central Plains on Wednesday. A marginal
wind-damage and hail threat will also be possible in south-central
Texas.

...Northeast...
An upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward across the Great
Lakes and Ohio Valley on Wednesday. At the surface, a cold front is
forecast to move east-southeastward across the Northeast. Surface
dewpoints should be in the lower to mid 50s F across much of New
York and Pennsylvania which should contribute to a corridor of weak
instability by midday. A band of large-scale ascent associated with
the upper-level system in the Great Lakes along with low-level
convergence along the front will likely result in the development of
thunderstorms during the afternoon. Forecast soundings from central
Pennsylvania northeastward into central New York at 21Z on Wednesday
show 0-6 km shear in the 50 to 60 kt range. This strong deep-layer
shear should be enough for a marginal wind-damage threat especially
if a line can organize along the front. Hail could also occur with
the stronger updrafts.

...Central Plains/Mid Mississippi Valley/Central Appalachians...
An upper-level trough is forecast to move across the Great Lakes and
Ohio Valley on Wednesday. A front is forecast to be located from the
lower Missouri Valley eastward into the Ohio Valley by midday.
Surface dewpoints south of the boundary should be in the lower to
mid 60s F with pockets of moderate instability developing in the
afternoon. Thunderstorms appear likely to initiate along the front
in areas that heat up the most. The greatest thunderstorm coverage
should be in the Ohio Valley where large-scale ascent is forecast to
be stronger. Moderate deep-layer shear is forecast along most of the
front which should enable the stronger thunderstorms to produce
marginally severe wind gusts and hail.

...South-central Texas...
An upper-level trough is forecast to move across the Rio Grande
Valley on Wednesday. At low levels, a moist airmass should be in
place with surface dewpoints generally in the lower to mid 60s F
across the lower Rio Grande Valley. Model forecasts suggest that
scattered thunderstorms will develop in the higher terrain of
northern Mexico and move eastward into southern and central Texas
during the late afternoon and early evening. Moderate deep-layer
shear associated with gradually veering winds with height, along
with steep low-level lapse rates, should be sufficient for a
marginal wind damage threat. Hail will also be possible.

..Broyles.. 05/29/2017

 




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