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ALL SPC Mesoscale Analysis Curently in Effect
U.S. Tornado, Severe Thunderstorm & Fire Wx Alerts

No watches are valid as of Tue Jul 25 18:13:01 UTC 2017.MD 1419 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR WEST CENTRAL NV AND EXTREME EAST CENTRAL CA
MD 1419 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 1419
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0111 PM CDT Tue Jul 25 2017

Areas affected...West central NV and extreme east central CA

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 251811Z - 251945Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated strong downburst winds possible this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...East of the midlevel low over the northwest CA coast,
deep convection is beginning to develop over the high terrain from
the east slope of the Sierra Nevada into west central NV.  Continued
surface heating will drive sufficient buoyancy for thunderstorms to
move northward-northeastward off the high terrain, while deep-layer
vertical shear will be sufficient for some storm-scale organization.
 Steepening low-level lapse rates and some midlevel dry air will
support the potential for strong downdrafts, some of which could
produce marginally severe outflow winds.

..Thompson/Grams.. 07/25/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...VEF...LKN...REV...

LAT...LON   39931758 39461734 38961730 38171730 37541742 37071787
            37061813 37381863 37981912 38431952 38741982 39011991
            39391993 39551990 39971975 40291918 40321812 39931758 

  SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Outlook Image
Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1124 AM CDT Tue Jul 25 2017

Valid 251630Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EASTERN SD AND
SOUTHWEST MN...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL NE TO
NORTHWEST WI...

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS TO UPPER GREAT LAKES...

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WESTERN GREAT
BASIN...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms are expected across parts of the Upper
Midwest during the late afternoon and evening. Large hail, damaging
winds, and a couple tornadic storms will be possible.

...Upper Midwest...
Pronounced capping as sampled by the 12Z Aberdeen sounding will
inhibit surface-based storm development until late afternoon. Hot
temperatures from 100-104 degree F will be necessary to minimize
MLCIN, and this should occur across western NE into south-central SD
where a thermally-induced cyclone should form along a
quasi-stationary front. Storm initiation should occur in this
vicinity amid a deeply mixed thermodynamic profile characterized by
steep tropospheric lapse rates. Frontal convergence and warm-air
advection across the boundary should yield scattered storm
development to the east-northeast across eastern SD into
central/southern MN during the evening. Here, large buoyancy with
MLCAPE of 2000-3500 J/kg should be present amid upper 60s to lower
70s surface dew points. 

Deep-layer shear will be sufficient for organized updrafts on the
southern periphery of moderate mid/upper-level westerlies associated
with a Manitoba shortwave trough. However, weaknesses in the
hodograph and orientation of the front should foster a predominately
messy storm mode, with cells likely evolving rapidly into clusters.
This setup should result in a mix of large hail and damaging winds.
A couple tornadic storms will be possible with embedded but probably
transient supercell structures, most likely in parts of eastern SD
to central/southern MN. The severe threat should diminish late
evening into the overnight as convection becomes further
disorganized with the shortwave trough shifting east in northern ON.

...Western Great Basin...
Scattered storms will again develop this afternoon and evening
downstream of a nearly stationary mid-level low along the northern
CA coast. Winds below the 500-mb level will be light, with a belt of
50-60 kt high-level southwesterlies confined to the upper portion of
the convective cloud layer. Effective shear will likely remain weak,
below 20 kt. This will minimize the risk for severe wind gusts from
organized storms. However, localized severe wind gusts will be
possible where robust diabatic heating occurs, to the north/west of
pervasive cloud cover over the southern/eastern Great Basin.

..Grams/Cohen.. 07/25/2017

  SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Outlook Image
Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1211 PM CDT Tue Jul 25 2017

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN MO
TO SOUTHERN WI...

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN KS
TO NORTHERN IN...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong/severe storms will be possible across portions of
the Midwest region Wednesday.

...Midwest...

Latest model guidance continues to suggest a strong short-wave
trough will progress across MB into northwest ON by 26/12z with
subsequent movement to near the QC border by early evening. Southern
influence of this feature will affect the Great Lakes region where
12hr height falls will be on the order of 30m during the day. In the
wake of this feature, surface high should build into the northern
Plains forcing a cold front into northern WI extending into northern
NE by sunrise. This boundary will likely serve as the focus for
potential robust convection as diurnal heating contributes to
destabilization.

12z NAM guidance is considerably more aggressive than the ECMWF/GFS
during the day regarding a weak secondary short-wave trough as it
shifts across SD/NE into IA by early afternoon. NAM appears to have
considerable convective feedback as it generates an MCS prior to 18z
along the nose of a pronounced LLJ. NAM allows this convection to
grow upscale as it spreads toward northern IL. Have maintained SLGT
risk across this region to account for this scenario as GFS/ECMWF
are likely not generating enough convection due to warm advection at
the beginning of the period. However, forecast mid-level lapse rates
are not that steep and despite the expected MCS evolution, it's not
entirely clear how severe this activity will be. Greatest severe
threat will likely be damaging winds, especially if a well-organized
MCS does evolve as the NAM suggests.

Farther southwest along the trailing front into northeast KS, there
is some concern the most robust convection could evolve along this
segment of the boundary as intense boundary-layer heating should
extend across KS toward northwest MO. Surface-based thunderstorms
will likely develop along the wind shift after 21z as temperatures
warm into the mid 90s and CIN is adequately removed. Damaging winds
are the primary threats.

...Elsewhere...

Scattered convection will once again develop across much of the
western US and Southeast where seasonally high PW values and weak
lapse rates exist. Aside from an isolated local downburst, the
threat of organized severe will be limited across these regions.

..Darrow.. 07/25/2017

  SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook Image
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1123 AM CDT Tue Jul 25 2017

Valid 251700Z - 261200Z

...Western US Dry-Thunderstorm Potential...
The ongoing isolated dry-thunderstorm area is expanded southward
across parts of the Sierra Nevada, where thunderstorms will likely
develop later today. Although previous rainfall and some modest
increase in PW values suggest conditions will be less favorable for
ignitions/fire spread today versus prior days, thermodynamic
profiles should still support some enhanced potential for
lightning-induced starts. The 12Z REV sounding sampled PW of 0.75
inches, and forecast soundings suggest around 0.75-0.85 inches
across the area later today. Thus, while storms will continue to
become wetter with time, strikes outside of precipitation cores will
combine with gusty outflow winds to exacerbate the fire-weather
threat.

...Central Plains Gusty Winds/Low RH Potential...
Ahead of a cold front, a tightening pressure gradient will support
breezy southerly winds across parts of western Nebraska.
Additionally, with this area on the western edge of deeper moisture,
diurnal mixing will allow RH values to fall below 30% this
afternoon. Pockets of dry fine fuels may encourage locally elevated
fire-weather concerns. However, the threat appears too spatially
confined for highlights at this time.

..Picca.. 07/25/2017

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0227 AM CDT Tue Jul 25 2017/

...Synopsis...
Little change to the overall pattern is expected today, as a
slow-moving midlevel low edges eastward into northern California and
the Great Basin, while an upper ridge remains in place across the
Southwest into portions of the southern/central Plains. At the
surface, a trough will extend across much of the Plains south of a
surface low near Hudson Bay, while high pressure settles into the
Northeast. Generally weak surface features are expected across most
of the West. 

...OR/Northern CA eastward into southern MT...
Scattered thunderstorms are again expected from OR/northern CA
eastward into southern MT, in proximity to the slow-moving midlevel
low and embedded smaller-scale features. Thermodynamic profiles are
again expected to support a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms, though
with potentially abundant lightning affecting areas with dry fuels,
the risk of ignitions away from the heaviest rain cores will
continue. The driest thunderstorm activity is expected on the
northern fringe of the isolated dry-thunderstorm area, where PW
values will be slightly lower and stronger heating/mixing will
occur, but coverage will also tend to drop off with northward
extent. Strong and erratic outflow winds will be possible in the
vicinity of any thunderstorms.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

 




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