No watches are valid as of Tue Mar 19 12:31:02 UTC 2024.No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Tue Mar 19 12:31:02 UTC 2024.SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0727 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024
Valid 191300Z - 201200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United
States through tonight.
...Synopsis...
Gradual height falls over the Pacific Northwest will result in a
slow breakdown of the blocking pattern in the western states, and
slow eastward progression of the closed midlevel low from AZ to NM.
Lingering low-midlevel moisture and cool midlevel temperatures will
again support scattered diurnal convection from the southern Sierra
Nevada into the Peninsular/Transverse Ranges of southern CA, as well
as over the Mogollon Rim from AZ into western NM. Otherwise, a
relatively cool/dry post-frontal air mass will preclude
thunderstorms across the central/eastern CONUS.
..Thompson/Grams.. 03/19/2024
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0359 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024
Valid 221200Z - 271200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Medium-range models continue to suggest that flow will trend more
progressive across the central into eastern mid-latitude Pacific by
early this coming weekend. As this occurs, a blocking regime
initially centered over the northeastern Pacific is forecast to
breakdown, with flow subsequently amplifying downstream, across the
U.S. into western Atlantic.
It appears that this will include mid/upper trough amplification
across and offshore of the southern Atlantic coast on Saturday,
accompanied by strengthening cyclogenesis. Surface frontal wave
development is still generally forecast to remain more modest across
the northeastern Gulf/eastern Gulf Coast into Georgia/Carolina
Atlantic coast vicinity Friday through Friday night, but there may
be considerable convective development within a destabilizing
environment along a warm frontal zone across the Gulf of Mexico by
early Friday. It appears that this will spread across the Florida
peninsula and Florida Keys during the day Friday. However, models
suggest that an initially (relatively) dry/potentially cool
environment may preclude an appreciable risk of severe storms, as
initial convection spreads into this environment, weakens and
suppresses destabilization.
Late this coming weekend into early next week, models continue to
suggest that short wave perturbations, within amplifying large-scale
mid-level troughing spreading inland of the Pacific coast through
the Great Plains and Mississippi Valley, may support significant
surface cyclogenesis to the lee of the southern Rockies. However,
severe weather potential in association with this still seems
largely conditioned on the degree of warm sector destabilization,
which remains unclear.
In the wake of one significant intrusion of cool/dry air through
much of the northern Gulf Basin, reinforced at least somewhat in the
wake of the amplifying system off the South Atlantic coast early
this weekend, low-level moisture return to the warm sector remains
in question. More substantive low-level moistening appears probable
into the southeastern Great Plains on Monday, compared to the
central/southern high plains on Sunday. However, as this occurs and
model spread becomes more pronounced concerning a short wave
emerging from the Southwest.
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