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ALL SPC Mesoscale Analysis Curently in Effect
U.S. Tornado, Severe Thunderstorm & Fire Wx Alerts

WW 111 SEVERE TSTM AR KS MO OK 202030Z - 210100Z
WW 0111 Image

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 111
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
330 PM CDT Sun May 20 2018

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
  Extreme Northwest Arkansas
  Extreme Southeast Kansas
  Southwest and West Central Missouri
  Extreme Northeast Oklahoma

* Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 330 PM until
  800 PM CDT.

* Primary threats include...
  Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
  Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
  A tornado or two possible

SUMMARY...Storms are continuing to develop near the
Oklahoma-Kansas-Missouri border area.  These are expected to move
northeast through this evening with potential to produce large hail
and severe wind gusts.

The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 50
statute miles east and west of a line from 90 miles north of
Springfield MO to 35 miles south of Grove OK. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 110...

AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
23025.

...Weiss

  WW 110 SEVERE TSTM AR IL IN KY MO MS TN 201730Z - 210100Z
WW 0110 Image

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 110
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 PM CDT Sun May 20 2018

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
  Northeast and East Central Arkansas
  Extreme Southern Illinois
  Extreme Southwest Indiana
  Western Kentucky
  Southeast Missouri
  Northern Mississippi
  Western Tennessee

* Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 1230 PM until
  800 PM CDT.

* Primary threats include...
  Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely
  Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible

SUMMARY...Storms are increasing as they move southeastward across
southern Illinois and southeast Missouri into northern Arkansas. 
These storms will intensify this afternoon with severe wind gusts
and large hail possible.  Other storms will develop in advance of
the boundary over Tennessee and northern Mississippi with a threat
for local damaging winds and hail.

The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 80
statute miles east and west of a line from 30 miles east northeast
of Carbondale IL to 35 miles southwest of Oxford MS. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.

&&

AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector
27020.

...Weiss

  WW 0111 Status Updates
WW 0111 Status Image

STATUS REPORT ON WW 111

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 W FYV TO
15 WSW UMN TO 40 NNW SGF TO 5 SE SZL.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0478

..COOK..05/20/18

ATTN...WFO...TSA...SGF...EAX...


STATUS REPORT FOR WS 111 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

ARC007-210040-

AR 
.    ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BENTON               


MOC009-015-029-059-077-083-085-109-119-131-141-167-210040-

MO 
.    MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BARRY                BENTON              CAMDEN              
DALLAS               GREENE              HENRY               
HICKORY              LAWRENCE            MCDONALD            
MILLER               MORGAN              POLK                


THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY.  PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
  WW 0110 Status Updates
WW 0110 Status Image

STATUS REPORT ON WW 110

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNW MSL
TO 30 SW MKL TO 40 WNW MEM TO 50 SE BVX TO 30 SE BVX TO 25 SSW
ARG TO 20 NNE JBR TO 40 SSW PAH TO 10 W HOP TO 20 NNE HOP.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0479

..COOK..05/20/18

ATTN...WFO...MEG...PAH...


STATUS REPORT FOR WS 110 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

ARC031-035-037-055-093-111-210040-

AR 
.    ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

CRAIGHEAD            CRITTENDEN          CROSS               
GREENE               MISSISSIPPI         POINSETT            


MOC069-155-210040-

MO 
.    MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

DUNKLIN              PEMISCOT            


TNC005-017-023-033-039-045-053-075-077-079-095-097-113-131-167-
183-210040-

TN 
.    TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
  MD 0479 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 110... FOR WESTERN KENTUCKY...WESTERN TENNESSEE...EASTERN ARKANSAS...AND NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI
MD 0479 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 0479
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0626 PM CDT Sun May 20 2018

Areas affected...Western Kentucky...western Tennessee...eastern
Arkansas...and northern Mississippi

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 110...

Valid 202326Z - 210030Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 110
continues.

SUMMARY...An isolated damaging wind threat continues across
remaining portions of WW 110, although much of the region has
stabilized recently due to convective overturning.  Portions of WW
110 may be cancelled before the 01Z expiration time.

DISCUSSION...Storms continue to propagate slowly/erratically in and
near the remaining valid portions of WW 110 currently.  These storms
are in a weakly sheared environment, with widespread convective
overturning and expanding rain-cooled air/outflow limiting the
magnitude of surface-based instability needed to maintain a robust
severe threat.  Storms propagating through the warm, moderately
unstable pre-convective airmass (in eastern Arkansas and near Middle
Tennessee) may continue to pose a threat for isolated damaging wind
gusts in the short term, although ongoing trends suggest that the
overall severe threat will continue to wane through 01Z.  Some
portions of WW 110 may be cancelled early as a result.

..Cook.. 05/20/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG...JAN...LZK...

LAT...LON   36129127 36169085 36289008 36498937 36948847 37438791
            37858766 37918731 37748715 37058733 36088769 35388799
            34438825 33998832 33738853 33698929 33809036 33999111
            34119139 34579138 35409127 36129127 

  MD 0478 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 111... FOR SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL MO
MD 0478 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 0478
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0625 PM CDT Sun May 20 2018

Areas affected...Southwest and central MO

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 111...

Valid 202325Z - 210100Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 111
continues.

SUMMARY...Isolated damaging wind gusts are the primary
severe-weather threat during the early evening across southwest and
west-central Missouri, and counties east of WW 111.

DISCUSSION...Water vapor imagery showed a progressive shortwave
trough tracking from eastern KS into the lower Missouri Valley, with
the southern portion of this trough glancing the northern extent of
greater instability across southern into central MO.  Forcing for
ascent with the trough and an increase in low-level warm advection
into central/eastern MO through tonight (per a strengthening
southerly 850-mb jet) should maintain the potential for
showers/thunderstorms from west to east.  Steep low-level lapse
rates located downstream of the ongoing storms moving into
south-central and central MO should aid in the potential for locally
strong wind gusts.  This threat should continue for the next 2-3
hours (until 9-10 PM), prior to boundary-layer stabilization.
Despite the likelihood for convection to persist this evening into
tonight, a stabilizing boundary layer with the loss of daytime
heating and weak midlevel lapse rates suggest storm intensities
should wane with the onset of increasing surface-based inhibition.

..Peters.. 05/20/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...LZK...SGF...EAX...TSA...

LAT...LON   36099452 36849457 37879438 38439436 38679304 38739207
            38149104 37499101 36599262 36379309 36099452 

  MD 0477 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHEAST IN...SOUTHWEST OH...AND ADJACENT PART OF NORTH-NORTHEAST KY
MD 0477 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 0477
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0540 PM CDT Sun May 20 2018

Areas affected...Southeast IN...southwest OH...and adjacent part of
north-northeast KY

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 202240Z - 210115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated strong to severe storms will remain possible into
the early evening across southwest Ohio, and perhaps reaching
adjacent counties in northeast Kentucky. Locally strong, damaging
winds will be the primary threat.

DISCUSSION...Mosaic radar trends showed a small cluster of storms
extending from southwest OH into far southeast IN, with this
activity tracking to the southeast within a corridor of moderate
instability (surface-based CAPE 1500-2000 J/kg) that extended into
northeast KY.  Vertically veering winds with westerly midlevel winds
of 40-45 kt per ILN VWP is resulting in sufficient shear for storm
organization within a moist and unstable environment.  Although
midlevel lapse rates are weak, limiting the severe hail threat,
steep surface to 3 km lapse rates of 8-8.5 C/km suggest locally
strong, damaging winds will remain possible.  This severe-weather
threat is expected to diminish between 8-10 PM EDT, as the loss of
daytime heating stabilizes the boundary layer.  The short duration
of this severe threat precludes the need for a severe-thunderstorm
watch.

..Peters/Hart.. 05/20/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK...

LAT...LON   39728458 39578353 39158284 38928255 38488254 38118295
            38298393 38528468 38808514 39318504 39728458 

  SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Outlook Image
Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0256 PM CDT Sun May 20 2018

Valid 202000Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EXTREME
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTHWEST MO AND OVER A PORTION OF THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI AND TN VALLEYS...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe storms will persist through early evening from
extreme southeast Missouri into northeast Arkansas and the Tennessee
Valley. Other strong to severe storms might occur from extreme
northeast Oklahoma into northwest Arkansas and southwest Missouri.
Isolated strong storms also remain possible over south central and
southeast Texas. Downburst wind and large hail will remain the
primary threats.

...Discussion...

Primary change to previous outlook has been to introduce a small
slight risk area from northeast OK into southwest MO. Storms are
developing over northeast OK in association with what appears to be
a convectively enhanced vorticity maximum (MCV). This activity might
intensify as the boundary layer destabilizes downstream. A belt of
stronger winds aloft accompanying the MCV and surface winds backed
to southeasterly north of an outflow boundary retreating northward
through southern MO are contributing to vertical shear profiles
sufficient for at least marginal supercell structures, especially if
storms can interact with this modifying boundary as they
move/develop northeast. See SWOMCD 475 for additional information.

..Dial.. 05/20/2018

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Sun May 20 2018/

...Mid Mississippi Valley into the Mid-South...
Several low-level convective boundaries are analyzed extending from
southwest Indiana across far southeast Missouri, with an additional
boundary arcing southward from ongoing convection over east central
Missouri then extending westward across northern Arkansas.  The
latter boundary is moving southeastward across southeast Missouri
into a very moist low-level air mass where surface dewpoints are in
the upper 60s to lower 70s.  Moderately steep mid-level lapse rates
sampled by the 12Z LZK sounding extend into the Mid-South and are
contributing to MLCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg.  The area is along the
southern edge of stronger westerly mid-level winds which may aid in
storm organization with primarily multicell storms likely this
afternoon.

Model guidance including 12Z CAMs/HREF indicate storms will increase
in coverage this afternoon as continued heating weakens the cap and
convergence is focused along the primary outflow boundary.  The
strong thermodynamic support suggest a few storms will become severe
capable of producing large hail and strong wind gusts.  Activity
will continue into the evening before storms begin to diminish by
01-03z.

...Parts of eastern Oklahoma into western Arkansas and southwest
Missouri...
Visible imagery indicates clouds have thinned over this area in
advance of a mid-level short-wave trough lifting northeastward from
the Plains toward the lower Missouri Valley.  This will promote air
mass destabilization in the wake of overnight convection.  Model
guidance indicates a few storms will redevelop this afternoon from
eastern Oklahoma into southwest Missouri along/immediately ahead of
an advancing cold front and/or convective outflow.  Although winds
aloft may slowly weaken into tonight, sufficient vertical shear may
persist to aid development of a few strong to severe storms this
afternoon and evening.  A Marginal Risk has been added across parts
of this area.

...Southern into Eastern Texas...
An extensive band of convection is moving southward/southeastward
extending from east of the DFW Metroplex into central Texas.  The
air mass across the region in advance of the convection remains
moist and unstable with MLCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg expected this
afternoon.  The convection is likely to continue this afternoon with
a few strong to severe storms possible.  Overall severe threat will
be limited by marginal vertical shear, but stronger cells will be
capable of producing hail and strong wind gusts.

Other strong to isolated severe storms are expected to develop this
afternoon within the moist upslope low-level flow over southwest
Texas.

...Ohio Valley...
A few strong storms will be possible this afternoon and evening over
parts of the Ohio Valley near and south of a frontal boundary
extending from southern Indiana into southern Ohio.  Forcing for
large scale ascent appears to be weak which may limit the coverage
of storms.

  SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook Image
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0145 PM CDT Sun May 20 2018

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN ARIZONA AND
FAR SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST NEW
MEXICO...

Scattered dry thunderstorms are likely tomorrow across portions of
northwest New Mexico, mainly along and just west of the Continental
Divide. Model soundings in this region show steep mid-level lapse
rates developing by mid-afternoon with inverted-V boundary layer
profiles and PWATs ranging from 0.25-0.50 in. Storms are expected to
develop in the high terrain with isolated coverage initially.
Effective bulk shear of 20-25 kts should eventually help to organize
the convection into scattered multi-cellular clusters. These storms
will be able to access richer low-level moisture and higher PWATs as
they propagate eastward, thus limiting the scattered dry
thunderstorm potential farther east. However, concurrent isolated
thunderstorm development is possible across much of region, thus
posing an initial risk of dry-lightning fire starts.

Otherwise, the ongoing critical area across portions of eastern
Arizona has been expanded south to cover portions of southeast
Arizona and far southwest New Mexico, accounting for the potential
for winds to exceed critical thresholds, as depicted in latest
high-resolution model guidance. No adjustments were made to the
elevated area. See the previous discussion for more information.

..Karstens.. 05/20/2018

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0125 AM CDT Sun May 20 2018/

...Synopsis...
A similar regime for fire weather conditions will exist on D2/Mon as
on the previous day (D1/Sun) as a mid-level trough gradually closes
off over California and southwesterly mid-level flow persists across
dry areas of the Southwest.  This mid-level flow will be slightly
stronger during the D2/Mon afternoon however (40-50 kt) especially
across Arizona.  With vertical mixing processes resulting in
stronger surface flow across parts of this region, critical fire
weather conditions are expected across portions of eastern Arizona,
with elevated fire weather expected in surrounding areas.

...Parts of Arizona, far western New Mexico, and far southeastern
Utah...
Aforementioned vertical mixing processes, in conjunction with a weak
surface pressure gradient persisting across the region, will result
in areas of 15-25 mph across the region increasing to around 20-30
mph across portions of eastern Arizona.  This flow will continue
amidst a very dry low-level airmass, with 70s-80s F afternoon
temperatures resulting in critically low RH values (3-15%). 
Persistent drought, dry fuels, and the presence of ongoing fires all
suggest elevated to critical fire weather conditions during the
afternoon and early evening.  A critical delineation remains in
place in areas that have the greatest chance of experiencing 20+ mph
surface winds within the dry environment for several hours during
the afternoon and evening.  A broader elevated area surrounds the
critical, and although surface winds may exceed 20 mph at times
across these areas, they are currently expected to occur on a
brief-enough basis to preclude any categorical upgrade at this time.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

 




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