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ALL SPC Mesoscale Analysis Curently in Effect
U.S. Tornado, Severe Thunderstorm & Fire Wx Alerts

No watches are valid as of Mon Sep 25 18:08:01 UTC 2017.No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Mon Sep 25 18:08:01 UTC 2017.SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Outlook Image
Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1126 AM CDT Mon Sep 25 2017

Valid 251630Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
SOUTHEAST NM AND SOUTHWEST TX...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe storms are possible over a small part of
southeast NM and southwest TX this afternoon and evening.

...SE NM/SW TX...
Latest visible satellite loop shows clearing skies across parts of
southeast NM and southwest TX, in the wake of early morning
convection.  Trends suggest that several hours of
heating/destabilization will occur in this region, leading to
afternoon MLCAPE values of around 1500 J/kg.  Forecast soundings in
this region indicate weak low-level winds, but rather strong winds
above 500mb, providing favorable deep-layer shear for
organized/rotating updrafts.  Lapse rates are rather steep as well,
suggesting that hail will be a risk with any persistent storm.  The
main forecast problem involves weak forcing and uncertainty
regarding thunderstorm coverage.  Have opted to include a MRGL risk
area in this update, given the favorable heating and consensus of
12z CAM solutions that an isolated storm or two are likely to form
off the Guadalupe/Davis mountains.

..Hart/Picca.. 09/25/2017

  SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Outlook Image
Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1153 AM CDT Mon Sep 25 2017

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The risk of severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S.
Tuesday through Tuesday night.

...Discussion...
The southern branch of split westerlies emanating from the
mid-latitude Pacific remains amplified, but a significant
perturbation appears likely to emerge from embedded large-scale
troughing over the western U.S., and accelerate
northeastward/eastward across the northern Plains through the upper
Great Lakes region during this period.  At the same time, it appears
that a digging upstream perturbation will contribute to the
development of another closed low within remnant upper troughing
near/east of the lower Colorado Valley.  Downstream of this latter
feature, a sharpening ridge is forecast to build from the lower Rio
Grande Valley through the Tennessee/Ohio Valleys, while Maria turns
northward to the east of the southern Mid Atlantic coast.  A weak
mid/upper low now digging into the northeastern Gulf of Mexico
appears likely to linger through this period and beyond.

Models do indicate that the perturbation emerging from the
intermountain region may provide support for cyclogenesis along a
front now quasi-stationary across the upper Great Lakes/Upper
Midwest region.  However, the more significant deepening and
strengthening of lower/mid tropospheric wind fields and shear are
expected northeast of the Great Lakes region, into the vicinity of
James Bay.  With the mid-level cold core of the upper impulse
lagging to the cool side of the surface frontal zone, and weak
mid-level lapse rates limiting destabilization within the warm
sector, the risk for severe storms still appears negligible at this
time.

Across the Southwest, a rather dry environment seems likely to
initially suppress/delay convective development, but forcing for
ascent downstream of the evolving closed low, coupled with moisture
advection, may eventually contribute to scattered thunderstorm
development across parts of the southern Rockies into the Colorado
Plateau.  It appears that this is most probable after dark, with
generally negligible risk for severe weather.

..Kerr.. 09/25/2017

  SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook Image
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1043 AM CDT Mon Sep 25 2017

Valid 251700Z - 261200Z

Previous outlook remains on track and no changes are necessary. See
discussion below for more details.

..Leitman.. 09/25/2017

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0155 AM CDT Mon Sep 25 2017/

...Synopsis...
The persistent upper trough/low centered over the Great Basin will
begin to lift northeastward into the northern Plains and adjacent
Canadian provinces throughout the period. Northerly mid-level winds
of 35 to 45 kt are forecast over much of CA along the western
periphery of the upper trough. At the surface, high pressure will
remain anchored over the Great Basin and northern/central Rockies
through the period, which will support a weak to locally moderate
offshore wind event across portions of southern CA.

...Portions of the Sacramento Valley and Adjacent Coastal Ranges of
Northern CA...
Enhanced mid-level winds, combined with diurnal heating, should
allow for modest northerly surface winds to mix to the surface this
afternoon across portions of the Sacramento Valley and adjacent
Coastal Ranges of northern CA. Sustained winds up to 15 mph appear
possible, with stronger gusts occurring at higher elevations. RH
values will once again decrease into the 10-20% range given an
antecedent dry low-level airmass and diurnal heating. These forecast
meteorological conditions combined with continued dry fuels support
an elevated designation across this region.

...Portions of Southern CA...
Elevated fire weather conditions are ongoing early this morning and
will develop again Tuesday morning across portions of southern CA
when the surface pressure gradient will be maximized. During these
periods, offshore winds will increase to 15-20 mph, with stronger
gusts possible in higher elevations. RH values will likely remain
low through much of the period owing to downslope warming/drying
effects, and overnight RH recovery is forecast to remain poor. 06Z
surface observations support these forecast trends, particularly at
high elevations where winds are gusting to 25-30 mph and RH lowering
to near 20% in a few locations. The continuation of drying fuels
across this region supports the elevated area. The lack of an even
stronger forecast surface pressure gradient and related winds
continues to preclude a critical designation.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

 




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