U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 101528
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1028 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024
Valid 101700Z - 111200Z
No changes are warranted and please see previous discussion.
..Nauslar.. 05/10/2024
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024/
...Synopsis...
An upper low will meander over the Southwest as a mid-level trough
amplifies over the eastern U.S. today, with northwest flow aloft
prevailing everywhere east of the Mississippi River. As such,
relatively cool conditions will prevail over much of the CONUS, with
significant wildfire-spread potential expected to be limited over
most locations. One exception may be central and eastern portions of
the Florida Peninsula, where 10-15 mph sustained westerly surface
winds, amid 25-35 percent RH, may overspread dry fuels during the
afternoon, warranting Elevated highlights.
A few other areas may also experience localized conditions favorable
for wildfire growth. First, dry and occasionally breezy conditions
may overlap modestly receptive fuels over parts of southeast Arizona
into far southwestern New Mexico, which may promote locally Elevated
fire concerns during the afternoon. Second, dry northerly surface
winds will overspread the northern Plains behind the cold front,
though any wildfire-spread that materializes should be localized
given marginally receptive fuels.
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U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 101724
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1224 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024
Valid 111200Z - 121200Z
Minor modifications were made to the Elevated area based on the
latest forecast guidance. Additionally, isolated dry thunderstorms
may develop over and near eastern portions of the Elevated area.
However, the probability of dry thunderstorms is low and confined to
a narrow corridor in south-central New Mexico, which precludes
introducing an Iso DryT area at this time. Otherwise, the previous
outlook remains on track.
..Nauslar.. 05/10/2024
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024/
...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will eject into the Atlantic as a second
mid-level trough ejects into the Southern Plains tomorrow
(Saturday). Surface high pressure will become established over the
eastern U.S., promoting cool conditions while potentially
appreciable rainfall occurs over the southern High Plains. As such,
wildfire-spread concerns will be limited across most of the CONUS.
Guidance consensus does suggest that 15+ mph sustained westerly
surface winds will overspread 10-20 percent RH along the southern
Arizona and New Mexico border area during the afternoon, where
Elevated highlights have been introduced. Otherwise, locally dry or
breezy conditions may prevail over the northern Plains or Florida
Peninsula, where localized wildfire-spread potential may exist.
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 102132
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0432 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024
Valid 121200Z - 181200Z
An upper-level trough will slowly move east from the southern Plains
into the Southeast through early next week. Showers and
thunderstorms will spread eastward across much of the central and
eastern US mostly along and south of the southern Great Lakes, with
the heaviest rain likely from southeast Texas through north Florida
and extending northward into the Deep South. Upper-level ridging
will weaken over the West and shift westward over the Pacific as an
upper-level trough moves southeast over the Rockies, and it will
likely merge with a weak upper low over the Desert Southwest
mid-next week.
...Florida Peninsula...
Developing short-term drought with rapidly increasing KBDI values
and ERC-Y values near or exceeding the 97th percentile on the
southern half to two-thirds of the Florida Peninsula could lead to
critical fire weather conditions next week. Little to no rain is
likely to make it to central and south Florida through mid-next
week, and minimum RH is likely to drop below 40% daily on portions
of the peninsula. Winds are likely to increase mid-next week as
another cold front approaches, but the extent and magnitude of
potential critical conditions remain uncertain.
...Southwest...
Dry and breezy conditions will continue on Day 3/Sunday from far
southeast Arizona through southern New Mexico into the Trans Pecos
likely resulting in locally critical conditions. Near daily chances
of isolated to scattered thunderstorms and showers are likely across
portions of northern New Mexico, especially over the higher terrain,
through mid-next week, but much of the Southwest is likely to
receive little to no rain into late next week. Winds are likely to
increase again across portions of the Southwest mid-next week, with
locally critical conditions possibly returning to lower and
mid-elevations by the end of next week.
..Nauslar.. 05/10/2024
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