Kings Beach, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

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Weather Forecast Discussion

491
FXUS65 KREV 170946
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
246 AM PDT Fri May 17 2024

.SYNOPSIS...

Unseasonably warm temperatures will persist through Saturday with
afternoon breezes continuing into next week. Regionally,
conditions will remain mostly dry with the exception for low
shower and thunderstorm chances in the eastern Sierra and far
western NV south of Highway 50 on Saturday. Low pressure digging
south will keep the breezes around for next week with seasonally
mild temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

* Unseasonably warm temperatures through Saturday with highs
  remaining about 5-10 degrees above normal.

* Afternoon breezes (typical of early summer) continue into the
  weekend. Look for locally choppy conditions on lake waters and
  impacts to activities that are more sensitive to breezy winds.

* 10% chance of thunder along the Mono County crest late this
  afternoon and a 20-30% chance of showers and thunderstorms south
  of Hwy 50 Saturday afternoon that may extend into far western
  NV locations. Otherwise, dry conditions prevail through the
  weekend.

TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY:

Ridge winds slacked up a bit overnight, and look to increase this
morning into the afternoon as a weak cold frontal boundary continues
across the northeast CA into the western NV and the Great Basin
in general. As westerly winds turn more northerly behind the
weakened front, well will see the first phase of cooling
spreading into the region today. If you feel a bit cooler this
afternoon it wont be your imagination. With the cooling across
the region, upper levels will be cooling a bit faster which
results in increased instability. With the current period of
warmer May surface temperatures, this in turn will increase
thunderstorm chances across the Sierra crest south of the Lake
Tahoe Basin. Therefore, dont be surprise if you see an isolated
storm or two pop-up along higher complex terrain areas south of
Markleeville into the the eastern Sierra-Mono County this
afternoon. A few Hi-Res ensemble members have also added to the
point spread for a 10-20% for storms that includes a few tenths of
light QPF sprinkled on top for good measure.

On Saturday, an upper trough driving into the Pacific Northwest will
sag south over northern areas of CA-NV, and increase westerly
breezes over the region. The strongest winds will be north of Hwy 50
where gusts to 30-35 mph may be sufficient enough to bring some
localized choppy lake waters across larger area lakes. Looking
farther south through Mono-Mineral-S. Lyon counties, ensemble
guidance projects a 20-30% potential for isolated-scattered
showers/storms during the afternoon into the evening hours. Blended
and ECS shift of tails ensemble guidance show a higher energy
availability that still shows that a few stronger cells will be
capable of some small hail, wind gusts to 40 mph, lightning and
brief heavy rainfall.

SUNDAY AND BEYOND:

Ensemble clusters show a back-door like upper trough dropping into
the region with afternoon breezes and temperatures cooling back to
near or slightly above normal levels. With this projection still a
few days out, some uncertainty prevails as to the definite track of
this system will take as it pushes into the region. Cluster ensemble
guidance, however, favors a more eastern trajectory for this
incoming system. Therefore, blended guidance projects a wider spread
of temperatures early next week. Although guidance is leaning drier
overall with lowered shower chance for showers, much variability
will follow forecast temperature and precipitation projections for
the remainder of May. -Amanda

&&

.AVIATION...

30-HR Operating Period (through 18/18Z): Look for VFR conditions
for main terminals through the forecast period. FL100 winds from
the West 15-25kts kts shifting to the North-Northwest after 18-21Z
Friday after cold front passage through western NV with surface
wind gust to20 kts through 03Z. A 10-15% chance of showers and
isolated thunderstorms after 21Z near the Sierra crest south of
KTVL after 21Z in vicinity of KBAN-KMMH. -Amanda

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

Unseasonably warm daytime temperatures and mild nights, combined
with higher solar angles, longer days, and limited cloud cover, will
continue to increase snowmelt rates late week. Even the higher
elevation deeper snow areas have begun to melt in earnest.

This rapid melt will lead to elevated flows with rivers and streams
running cold and fast, most notably in areas draining significant
terrain over ~7500 feet from Lake Tahoe south through Mono
County. Rivers and streams in this area will remain high through
the weekend, with the highest flows likely Thursday into Saturday.
Cooler temperatures and a depleting snow-covered contributing
area will help reduce flows somewhat Sunday into early next week.

While these high and cold flows can be hazardous to
recreationalists, flooding is very unlikely. Remember the highest
flows are significantly lagged from the heat of the day and can
often occur at night.

More steady high flows will also continue along the Lower Humboldt,
with additional rises likely in very late May or early June.

Please use extra caution around local rivers and streams which will
be running fast and cold and can be very hazardous if entered.

TB/Amanda

&&


&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$

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