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Tropical Atlantic & Pacific Basin Outlooks & Discussions

Tropical Weather Outlook
Atlantic - Caribbean - Gulf of Mexico
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
100 PM EST Sat Nov 18 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Stewart
NNNN

Tropical Weather Discussion
Atlantic - Caribbean - Gulf of Mexico

000
AXNT20 KNHC 181714
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1214 PM EST Sat Nov 18 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1615 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A cold front will reach the NW Gulf of Mexico tonight and will 
move across the remainder of the Gulf through Monday. Strong high 
pressure building behind the front will produce gale force winds 
over the SW Gulf S of 25N to the west of the cold front beginning
1200 UTC Sunday and persisting through Sunday night. See the 
latest high seas forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 
for more details. 

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 09N13W to 
07N21W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from 
07N21W to 06N24W to 07N34W, then resumes west of a surface trough
near 09N43W to the South American coast near 09N61W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A ridge axis extends across the eastern Gulf from high pressure
centered over the SE US Atlantic Coast. This ridge supports
gentle winds over the eastern gulf, and moderate to fresh winds 
over the remainder of the Gulf. The basin is currently void of 
convection. A cold front will reach the NW Gulf tonight and will sweep
across the Gulf through Monday. Gale force winds are expected 
over a portion of the SW Gulf Sunday into Sunday night behind the
front. Please refer to the special features section for more 
details on this gale. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough extends from Hispaniola at 18N73W to a 1008 mb
low near 11N75W and then southward over Colombia. Due to an upper
trough to the west, scattered moderate convection is offset to the
east of these surface features, and is occurring within 240 nm E 
of a line from 19N71W to 11N74W. High pressure over the western 
Atlantic is supporting moderate to fresh NE winds over the 
northwestern Caribbean. Mainly gentle to moderate winds cover the
remainder of the Caribbean. Over the next 24 hours the low and 
trough will drift northeastward with convection continuing to the 
east of the trough. 

...HISPANIOLA...

Scattered showers are over the western half of the island as
moisture continues to get pulled across the region, due to an 
upper trough to the west. This pattern will continue through 
Sunday, with localized flooding possible during this time.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

High pressure centered near the SE US coast dominates the Atlantic
waters west of 70W. A 1010 mb low is centered near 31N40W with a
stationary front extending from this low to 27N47W to a 1008 mb
low near 27N56W. A surface trough extends from this low to near
20N69W. Another surface trough is just to the east and extends
from 22N62W to 19N67W. These features are supporting a large area
of showers and embedded areas of steady rainfall with isolated 
thunderstorms within 600 nm E of a line from 31N57W to 20N70W. 
High pressure of 1019 mb centered near 28N28W dominates the 
eastern Atlantic. Over the next 24 hours the lows will move NE 
with convection spreading east. SW winds will increase to 20 to 25
kt N of 30N east of 70W Sunday as a cold front approaches the 
region. 

For additional information please visit 
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Latto
Tropical Weather Outlook
Eastern Pacific
ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1000 AM PST Sat Nov 18 2017

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
NNNN

Tropical Weather Discussion
Eastern Pacific

000
AXPZ20 KNHC 181535
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1344 UTC Sat Nov 18 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Pulses of strong northerly 
drainage flow will diminish to 20 kt or less today, with winds 
becoming light and variable in the afternoon hours. Strong to 
near gale-force conditions will develop late tonight in the wake
of a cold front in the Gulf of Mexico, and then quickly increase
to gale-force on Sun morning. These conditions will continue 
through Mon morning. Seas will build to a max of 15 ft downstream
of the gulf waters near 14N95.5W on Sun night. Winds will 
diminish to 20 kt or less around sunrise on Tue. 

INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The monsoon trough is from 09N83W to 09N103W. ITCZ extends from 
09N103W to 11N140W. Scattered moderate convection is within 255 
nm on either side of the ITCZ. 

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

See the Special Features section for information about the Gulf 
of Tehuantepec Gale Warning. 

A NW to SE orientated ridge just beyond 250 nm seaward will 
maintain moderate to locally fresh NW flow W of Baja Peninsula 
through sunrise on Sun when the pressure gradient will relax, 
supporting moderate NW flow through sunrise on Mon. Light N winds
winds then expected through sunrise on Thu.

Gulf of California: Light and variable winds at sunrise this 
morning will quickly become northerly this morning with strong N 
winds developing across the gulf waters N of 30N by early this 
afternoon. These strong NW winds will shift S across the central 
gulf waters tonight surrounded by fresh NW flow elsewhere. 
Little change then expected through Sun morning when the 
pressure gradient will relax with moderate NW flow forecast 
across the entire gulf waters by sunrise on Mon, becoming light 
northerly flow Mon night.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gulf of Papagayo: Moderate to locally fresh NE drainage winds 
are forecast during the overnight hours through the middle of 
next week with seas building to 5 ft downstream near 10N87W. 

Light and variable winds, and 3 to 5 ft seas, are expected 
elsewhere to the N of 09N, while moderate to locally fresh 
southerly winds, and 4 to 7 ft seas, are forecast S of 09N 
through the middle of next week. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A NE to SW aligned ridge builds from 32N124W to beyond 20N140W. 
Fresh to locally strong southerly flow will develop across the 
waters N of 26N W of 134W tonight, with seas building to 9 ft. 
Expect strong southerly winds N of the ridge, generally across 
the waters N of 23N W of 137W on Sun through Tue, with seas 
building 8 to 12 ft. The associated cold front will arrive at 
32N140W late Wed, with seas building 12 to 18 ft W of the front 
through Thu. 

Moderate to locally fresh anticyclonic flow expected across the 
tropics N of the ITCZ and W of 120W through the middle of next 
week with seas building to 8 ft.

$$
ERA

Tropical Weather Discussion
Central Pacific

No Storms to Report


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