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Current U.S. Mesoscale Discussions
Current United States Mesoscale Discussions
Current United States Mesoscale Discussion Legend
   SPC AC 180044

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0644 PM CST Fri Nov 17 2017

   Valid 180100Z - 181200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Thunderstorms are expected overnight across much of the Midwest from
   Missouri to Ohio.

   ...Discussion...

   Low-level warm advection appears to be increasing across the Midwest
   this evening as LLJ strengthens over MO/IL. Scattered convection,
   with isolated thunderstorms, continues to evolve along nose of the
   LLJ with lightning focused in the vicinity of southern Lake MI. This
   elevated activity should translate east into lower MI and the OH
   Valley as LLJ veers into this region after midnight.

   Late tonight, surface front will begin to surge into more moist air
   mass but convection will likely struggle to develop until the end of
   the period due to strong capping across MO. 00z sounding from SGF
   exhibits strong inhibition above the boundary layer and this should
   suppress thunderstorm activity, possibly until after 10z. Convection
   that develops along the front will likely be elevated in nature but
   strongly sheared. While isolated severe threat can not be ruled out,
   potential will be more certain after 18/12z as reflected in latest
   day2 outlook.

   ..Darrow.. 11/18/2017

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

        



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