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U.S. & Canada 12-UTC 48 Hour Surface Smoke Forecast
Map is in operation from early April through October 31
U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 031445
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0945 AM CDT Fri May 03 2024
Valid 031700Z - 041200Z
An Elevated risk area has been introduced to portions of southeast
New Mexico. Morning surface observations and 12 UTC soundings from
ABQ and EPZ show very dry conditions at/near the surface with RH
values generally in the teens to low 20s across parts of far
southwest TX and south-central NM. This air mass should spread
northeast behind an eastward migrating dryline this afternoon. Weak
mid and upper-level winds will limit the overall magnitude of the
fire weather potential, but ensemble guidance shows reasonably high
confidence of 15-20 mph winds co-located with the driest conditions.
Furthermore, recent fuel guidance suggests ERCs generally reside in
the 80-90th percentile across this region after several days of
limited rainfall, which should support the fire weather concern.
Elevated conditions are also expected further north into
south-central CO, but will be more localized and driven by
terrain-induced winds.
..Moore.. 05/03/2024
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1225 AM CDT Fri May 03 2024/
...Synopsis...
A low-amplitude shortwave trough will move through northern Mexico
today and eject into West Texas by early tomorrow morning. A weak
surface trough is expected to develop in the southern High Plains as
a result. Portions of the Southwest will experience dry and breezy
conditions for period during the afternoon. Given the short duration
of these conditions, only locally elevated fire weather concerns are
expected.
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U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 031917
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0217 PM CDT Fri May 03 2024
Valid 041200Z - 051200Z
An Elevated risk area has been introduced for parts of southwest to
central New Mexico for Saturday afternoon. The general forecast
evolution outlined in the previous discussion remains on track,
though latest high-res ensemble guidance has shown a reasonably
strong signal for 15-20 mph winds from southwest to central NM (the
probability for winds over 15 mph is generally 60%+ for most
locations). These conditions appear most probable during the 20-23
UTC period along ridge tops within the Gila region and along the
I-25 corridor. While the driest fuel conditions appear to be across
south-central NM, fuel analyses suggests ERCs over the region vary
between the 60-90th percentiles. These values are corroborated by
recent small wildfire activity, which suggests that fuels are
adequately dry to support fire weather concerns. Further west across
the southern Great Basin, strengthening winds combined with dry
conditions will support widespread elevated fire weather conditions.
However, fuel guidance suggests ERCs are near to below seasonal
values, which limits confidence in the overall fire weather threat.
..Moore.. 05/03/2024
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1226 AM CDT Fri May 03 2024/
...Synopsis...
A shortwave trough in West Texas will lift northeastward to near the
Red River Valley on Saturday. Farther north, a stronger upper-level
trough will also move northeast out of the central/northern Plains.
As this occurs, a cold front will push into part of the southern
High Plains. To the west of the cold front up against the southern
Rockies, parts of the Southwest will again be dry and breezy.
Similar to Friday, these conditions should generally be short-lived
and localized.
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 032101
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0401 PM CDT Fri May 03 2024
Valid 051200Z - 111200Z
An active period of fire weather concerns remains likely beginning
late this weekend and lasting well into the upcoming work week. The
greatest fire weather risk will be focused across the central to
southern Rockies and into adjacent areas of the central/southern
High Plains where a dry air mass is already in place. Latest
ensemble guidance continues to show strong agreement in the
evolution of an upper-level trough (currently noted in water-vapor
imagery over the northeast Pacific) as it translates east across the
inter-mountain West and into the Plains Sunday and Monday, reaching
the Great Lakes/northern Plains by Tuesday/Wednesday. Strong low to
mid-level flow associated with this system will support multiple
days of dry, windy conditions with an accompanying fire weather
risk.
...D3/Sunday to D6/Wednesday - New Mexico and adjacent portions of
TX/CO...
Strong divergence aloft ahead of the approaching upper-level wave
will support broad surface pressure falls across the central Rockies
on Sunday afternoon. In response, southerly winds will increase
across much of the Four Corners region into central and eastern NM.
Latest mid-range ensemble guidance suggests sustained 20-25 mph
winds will be common by late afternoon when RH values should be
reaching their diurnal minimums between 10-20%. Although fuels
across western NM are not overly dry as of Friday afternoon,
dry/windy conditions on Saturday across this region should help cure
finer fuels by Sunday.
Perhaps the most intense fire weather conditions are anticipated on
Monday afternoon across portions of east/northeast NM. The ejection
of the surface low into the Plains Monday afternoon will support
strong westerly downslope winds off the central/southern Rockies.
This will maintain dry conditions across the region with 10-20% RH
common. Elevated conditions are expected across a broad swath of the
High Plains with critical conditions likely across much of eastern
NM. Latest forecast guidance hints that 25-30 mph sustained winds
are probable across northeast NM in the lee of the Sangre de Cristo
Mountains. While this portion of northeast NM is currently receiving
rainfall, such dry/windy conditions should yield dried grasses after
a few hours.
Persistent zonal flow will linger over the southern Rockies
D5/Tuesday into D6/Wednesday. This will maintain a downslope flow
regime with an attendant dry air mass (afternoon minimum RH values
in the teens) across the southern High Plains with potential both
days for elevated to critical fire weather conditions. The critical
risk areas have been adjusted in this outlook update to reflect
where medium to long-range ensemble guidance shows the strongest
signal for sustained 20+ mph winds. These areas will likely be
refined in subsequent outlooks as mesoscale details come into focus.
Elevated conditions may linger into D7/Thursday across southern NM,
but weakening gradient winds aloft should limit fire weather
potential compared to previous days.
..Moore.. 05/03/2024
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