000
FXUS66 KSTO 281952
AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
1252 PM PDT Sun Apr 28 2024

.Synopsis...
Mild and dry weather in store with breezy winds early next week.

&&

It`s definitely not Groundhog Day, and I`m not Bill Murray, but the
weather is more or less on repeat today. Clear skies once again
prevail over the majority of interior NorCal, with seasonably warm
temperatures across the area. Monday and Tuesday will see some
breezy conditions, with winds gusting around 15 to 25 mph.
However, the real gusty northerly winds won`t start until
Wednesday. By Wednesday morning, an upper level low will have dug
down from the Pacific NW over the Great Basin, with an upper level
ridge moving in over NorCal from the Pacific. This pattern will
increase northerly flow over the area. The strongest gusts will
occur in the morning/early afternoon on Wednesday, primarily along
the I-5 corridor between Red Bluff and Sacramento. Winds there
have a 40 to 75% probability of gusting at 40 mph or more. This
will impact driving conditions, as well as blow around loose
objects. Elsewhere, gusts will range from around 15 mph to 30
mph. Other than gusty winds, the weather will be warm and dry
through Wednesday. Highs in the Valley will be in the high 70s to
low 80s, and higher elevations will see temperatures between the
low 60s and mid 70s. //SP

&&

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Thursday THROUGH Sunday)...
On Thursday, off-shore upper level ridging is forecast to build
and continue to bring dry conditions and warm temperatures around
the region. Friday, ensembles show ridging beginning to break down
and allow for more zonal flow to overtake NorCal as a closed low
develops in the Gulf of Alaska and digs southward. We should
remain dry and warm while the upper level pattern shifts, as the
closed low is projected to weaken and move inland well to our
north as we move into the weekend. Weak troughing over the region
will promote on-shore flow Saturday which will help cool high
temperatures into the upper 70s for the Valley. Precipitation
chances are introduced, mainly in northern Shasta County, the
Southern Cascades, and Coastal Range, on Saturday and Sunday. High
temperatures will fall into the low to mid 70s for the Valley on
Sunday with cooler upper 40s to low 60s for the higher elevations.
Cluster analysis reveals high variability in the forecast in the
extended period, but should improve as we move into the new work
week.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions next 24 hours. Surface wind gusts generally less
than 12 kts.

&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$