U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 071653
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1153 AM CDT Tue May 07 2024
Valid 071700Z - 081200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN NEW
MEXICO INTO SOUTHEAST COLORADO...
The Elevated area was extended westward into the White Mountains in
northern Arizona. Latest fuel guidance indicates ERCs in this region
are approaching the 75 percentile. Otherwise, no changes were made
to the Critical area. See previous discussion for more information.
..Thornton.. 05/07/2024
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1256 AM CDT Tue May 07 2024/
...Synopsis...
A broad upper cyclone will be situated in the northern Plains today.
Strong mid-level winds will remain across the southern Rockies. A
surface cyclone will deepen in the southern High Plains.
...Southwest...
Strong surface winds will develop in response to the upper trough
and surface cyclone to the east. Winds of 15-25 mph appear probable
with locally higher speeds in terrain-favored areas. RH will fall to
10-15% though single digits could occur locally. Fuels in the area
will continue to support an elevated to critical fire weather
threat.
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U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 071956
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0256 PM CDT Tue May 07 2024
Valid 081200Z - 091200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND
THE TRANS-PECOS...
No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous
discussion below for more information.
..Thornton.. 05/07/2024
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1258 AM CDT Tue May 07 2024/
...Synopsis...
The upper trough will broaden and elongate across much of the CONUS
on Wednesday. Mid-level winds, though weakening some, will still
remain across the southern Rockies. The surface low will migrate
southward into parts of Central Texas and the Rio Grande Valley.
With time, some colder air will push southward into New Mexico.
...Southwest and Trans-Pecos...
Surface winds of 15-25 mph are expected again across the region.
Coverage of these winds will likely be less given the weaker
synoptic features. The area with the highest confidence for stronger
winds of sufficient duration will be across southern New Mexico into
the Trans-Pecos. Stronger winds also appear possible in northeast
New Mexico, but the duration of these winds is not certain. RH will
fall to 10-15% for most of the region. Elevated to critical fire
weather will occur for a few hours during the afternoon.
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 072147
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0447 PM CDT Tue May 07 2024
Valid 091200Z - 151200Z
A continental air mass and a building surface high will overspread
the central/southern Plains beyond D2/Wednesday, which will limit
fire weather concerns for much of the extended. Elsewhere across the
country, widespread precipitation chances and/or recent rainfall
will limit fire weather concerns.
Continued upper-level troughing over the western US will support
weak lee troughing across the High Plains and will maintain areas of
dry/breezy conditions across eastern AZ/southwest NM. This may
support episodes of Elevated fire weather concerns. Rain chances are
forecast to increase towards the end of the work week across the
Four Corners/southern High Plains, which should further limit fire
potential.
..Thornton.. 05/07/2024
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