U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 280646
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0146 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024
Valid 281200Z - 291200Z
...Synopsis...
Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible this afternoon
across eastern New Mexico and far western Texas, where a belt of
increased mid-level flow will be in place with weak surface
troughing. This will allow for relative humidity reductions to
around 10-20 percent amid surface winds 10-15 mph (locally as high
as 20 mph). Ensemble guidance suggests there could be some portion
of east-central New Mexico where coverage of may be limited, but
given forecast afternoon relative humidity, opted to keep the entire
area in as deterministic guidance still show signal for Elevated
winds across the area. Fuels in this region will likely see drying
on D1 Saturday, but overall coverage of any Critical winds should
remain low enough to preclude the need for a Critical delineation at
this time.
..Thornton.. 04/28/2024
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U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 280647
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0147 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024
Valid 291200Z - 301200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis...
Fire weather concerns will be low on Monday. Weak lee surface
troughing will continue to bring localized breezes across portions
of the southern High Plains. Height rises and weakening flow aloft
should keep coverage of this threat limited, precluding the need to
include any areas at this time. Afternoon relative humidity will
still drop as low as 15 percent with localized periods of Elevated
fire weather, main across eastern New Mexico.
..Thornton.. 04/28/2024
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 271911
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0211 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024
Valid 291200Z - 051200Z
Zonal mid-level flow will become established across the CONUS, with
multiple embedded shortwave troughs expected to traverse the
northern half of the CONUS for the upcoming week. During the middle
into late week period, surface lee troughing will encourage dry and
occasionally breezy conditions across the southern High Plains as a
surface cold front sweeps across the northern Rockies into the
Plains.
Guidance consensus shows potential for at least Elevated equivalent
dry and breezy conditions along/behind the surface cold front across
the northern High Plains for Day 4 (Tuesday). However, fuels appear
modestly receptive to fire spread, precluding the addition of
Critical probabilities at this time. Similarly, Elevated equivalent
dry/windy conditions may also accompany the post-dryline environment
over eastern New Mexico into far western Texas. However, questions
remain this far in advance how strong the post-dryline winds will
become, with Critical probabilities withheld for now.
..Squitieri.. 04/27/2024
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