SPC AC 281625

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1125 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

   Valid 281630Z - 291200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
   AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF EAST TEXAS...NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...AND
   SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS....

   ...SUMMARY...
   Clusters of severe storms are possible through early tonight, with
   the most concentrated threat for wind damage, large hail and a few
   tornadoes from the ArkLaTex southward into east Texas.

   ...East TX/LA/Southern AR...
   A long-lived large nocturnal MCS that affected much of TX overnight
   has weakened substantially, but remains over parts of east TX. 
   Ample low-level moisture and moderate instability is present to the
   east of this activity, along with deep southerly low-level winds and
   little inhibition.  This will result in rejuvenation of storms by
   mid-afternoon along the remnant outflow boundary.  Forecast
   soundings in this area show sufficient deep-layer shear for
   supercell structures capable of large hail, damaging winds, and a
   few tornadoes.  This activity will spread eastward through the
   evening into LA/southern AR, with a continued risk of damaging wind
   gusts and isolated tornadoes.

   ...OK/AR/MO...
   The overnight MCS has significantly affected the air mass across
   much of eastern OK/western AR/southern MO, with expansive cloud
   cover and surface dewpoints now in the 50s to lower 60s.  Many of
   the 12z models are insistent that higher theta-e air will return to
   this region, resulting in a robust severe threat emerging by late
   afternoon - but our confidence in that scenario is rather low at
   this time.  Redevelopment of afternoon thunderstorms over eastern OK
   seems likely, and there remains a risk of hail, damaging winds, and
   a tornado or two from this activity.  Storms that form will spread
   eastward into AR and southern MO during the evening.

   ..Hart/Lyons.. 04/28/2024

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