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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
700 PM EST Thu Nov 30 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days. 

This is the last regularly scheduled Tropical Weather Outlook of the 
2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Routine issuance of the Tropical 
Weather Outlook will resume on May 15, 2024. During the off-season, 
Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as conditions 
warrant.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
NNNN

000
AXNT20 KNHC 240458
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion 
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 
0605 UTC Wed Apr 24 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America 
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South 
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the 
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite 
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0457 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Central Atlantic Significant Swell: 
A 1011 mb low at the central Atlantic currently near
27N34W will slowly drift southwestward through Thu. Large swell 
and wind waves produced by near gale force winds on Tuesday 
continue to affect the area north of 25.5N between 35W and 40W. 
Latest scatterometer data revealed that northerly winds have 
decrease to fresh to strong speeds north and northwest of the 
low center, while recent altimeter data depicted seas of 13 ft 
west of the low.  This area of swell should gradually continue 
to shrink in coverage through Thu as the low continues to 
weaken. Scattered showers are present near and up to 100 nm 
northeast and southeast of the low center. Please read the 
latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane 
Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more 
details.

Strong Thunderstorms With Heavy Rainfall in Hispaniola:
A persistent surface trough extending southwestward from 27N61W 
to western side of Puerto Rico is providing moist southerly flow 
across Hispaniola. Together with a pronounced mid to upper-level 
trough in the vicinity, strong thunderstorms are likely during 
the afternoon and early evening hours over and near Hispaniola 
on Wed and Thu. These thunderstorms are capable of producing 
heavy downpours, increasing the chance for flash flooding, 
especially in hilly terrains and low-lying areas. Please refer 
to the local weather service offices for more details on this 
event.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 8N13W, then extends 
southwestward to 02N19W. An ITCZ continues from 02N19W to 
1.5N46W. Scattered moderate convection is noted near both 
features from the Equator to 06N between 15W and 33W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge reaches southwestward from northern Florida to 
the central Gulf. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds and seas to 3 
to 5 ft are seen near the Yucatan Peninsula and at the eastern 
Bay of Campeche. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds and 2 to 4 ft 
seas are evident across the western Gulf, including the western 
Bay of Campeche. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds and seas of 3 
to 6 ft are noted at the Florida Straits. Mainly gentle winds 
with 1 to 3 ft seas prevail for the remainder of the Gulf.

For the forecast, high pressure over the N Gulf is supporting 
mainly gentle to moderate E winds in the NE half of the Gulf, 
and moderate to fresh SE winds in the SW half of the Gulf 
through Thu. The pressure gradient will tighten over the Gulf 
starting on Fri, increasing E to SE winds to fresh to strong 
across the whole basin through Sun. Meanwhile, winds will pulse 
to fresh to strong W of the Yucatan each evening.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section about strong 
thunderstorms and potential heavy rainfall across Hispaniola.

A surface trough extends from the eastern Pacific to northern 
Colombia. This trough is generating scattered showers and 
isolated thunderstorms over eastern Panama and nearby waters. 
Otherwise, a trade-wind pattern continues across much of the 
basin. Fresh with locally strong NE winds and seas of 4 to 5 ft 
are found at the south-central basin and near the Windward 
Passage. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds and 3 to 5 ft seas 
dominate the rest of the southern basin, including the ABC 
Islands. Light to gentle winds with seas at 2 to 4 ft are 
present south of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico, and near the Cayman 
Islands. Gentle to moderate NE to E winds and 3 to 5 ft seas 
prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea, including the Gulf of 
Honduras.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate trades are N of 15N, except 
fresh near the Windward Passage and in the Lee of far eastern 
Cuba, with moderate to fresh trades S of 15N, locally strong 
near Colombia. High pressure will build N of the area supporting 
fresh to locally strong winds just N of Colombia, through the 
Windward Passage, and in the lee of Cuba Wed and Thu. Looking 
ahead, further building of the high on starting on Fri will also 
force fresh to strong trades in the Gulf of Honduras and just S 
of Hispaniola through the weekend.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section about Significant Swell
in the Central Atlantic.

A cold front extends from 31N62W to 24N72W, then continues as a 
dissipating stationary front to near the N-central coast of 
Cuba. A persistent surface trough runs from 27N61W to the 
western side of Puerto Rico. The interaction between this 
surface trough and a pronounced mid to upper-level trough in the 
vicinity, is producing isolated moderate convection from 23N to 
27N between 61W and 65W. Another surface trough stretches south-
southwestward from well south of the Azores across 31N28.5W to 
14N41W. Scattered moderate convection is depicted north of 26N 
between 24W and 29W.

Other than the 1011 mb low mentioned in the Special Features
section, moderate to fresh NNE to ENE winds with 6 to 11 ft seas 
are found north of 20N between 40W and 50W. To the west, gentle 
to moderate with locally fresh NE to SE winds and seas at 6 to 9 
ft are evident north of 20N between 50W and the Florida-Georgia 
coast. For the eastern Atlantic north of 20N between 20W and 
32W, gentle to moderate E to SE winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft are 
noted. Near the Canary Islands, mostly moderate NNE winds and 2 
to 5 ft seas exist north of 20N between the northwest Africa 
coast and 20W. Near the Cabo Verde Islands, gentle N to NE winds 
and seas at 3 to 5 ft are present from 05N to 20N between the 
central Africa coast and 35W. For tropical Atlantic from 05N to 
20N between 35W and the Lesser Antilles, moderate to fresh NE to 
E winds and 5 to 7 ft seas are found. Light to gentle winds and 
seas of 5 to 7 ft in mixed moderate swells prevail for the rest 
of the Atlantic Basin.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned front will 
reach from 31N59W to the Turks and Caicos Islands Wed evening 
where it will stall and dissipate to a remnant trough. 
Associated northerly swell of 8 ft or greater will subside by 
Wed evening. Tranquil conditions are forecast Thu and Thu night. 
Looking ahead, a new cold front will merge with the trough and 
progress eastward, reaching 31N57W to E Cuba on Sat morning, and 
then 25N55W to Hispaniola on Sun morning. Swell will push S of 
31N with the front, resulting in building seas. A strengthening 
Bermuda High should cause widespread fresh to strong N to E 
winds W of the front beginning Fri evening through Sun night.

$$
KRV

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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1000 PM PST Thu Nov 30 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days. 

This is the last regularly scheduled Tropical Weather Outlook of the 
2023 eastern North Pacific Hurricane Season.  Routine issuance of 
the Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on May 15, 2024.  During 
the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as 
conditions warrant.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
NNNN

000
AXPZ20 KNHC 240405
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Wed Apr 24 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0345 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The equatorial trough extends from northern Colombia 
southwestward to the coast at 07N78W and continues to 06N80W to 
07N87W and to 07N95W, where latest scatterometer data indicates 
that it transitions to the ITCZ to 06N105W to 07N115W to 05N128W 
and to beyond 04N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong 
convection is seen within 30 nm either side of the ITCZ between 
99W and 107W, and within 60 nm north of the ITCZ between 
120W-123W. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm south of
the ITCZ between 107W-113W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Generally weak high pressure of 1019 mb is analyzed west of Baja
California at 26N126W. A ridge extends from the high center 
east-southeastward to near the Revillagigedo Islands. The 
pressure gradient between the ridge and a trough over the Gulf of
California is supporting gentle to locally moderate northerly 
winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft west of Baja California and near the 
Revillagigedo Islands. Winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec region 
have become light to gentle in speeds and southeast to south in 
direction. Seas downstream from the Gulf of Tehuantepec have 
subside to 8 ft due to northeast swell.

Winds in the northern Gulf of California have become fresh to
strong and south to southwest in direction. Seas with these winds
are 2 to 4 ft. Light to gentle southeast to south winds along 
with seas of 1 to 3 ft are elsewhere in the Gulf of California. 
Light to gentle winds and seas of at 4 to 6 ft in west to
northwest swell are offshore central Mexico, while light and
variable winds along with seas of 5 to 7 ft in an east swell are
offshore Oaxaca and Puerto Angel.

For the forecast, the fresh to strong southerly gap winds in the
northern Gulf of California will diminish to moderate speeds on 
Wed. In the long term, strong high pressure building eastward 
toward Baja California will cause gentle to moderate northerly 
winds west of Baja California and near the Revillagigedo Islands 
to increase to fresh speeds along with building seas beginning on
Thu afternoon, and likely to change little through the weekend.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Moderate to fresh east to southeast winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft
are present in the Gulf of Papagayo region, while moderate to 
fresh north winds are in the Gulf of Panama reaching south to 
near 06N. Seas with these winds are 4 to 6 ft. Generally, light 
and variable winds are elsewhere over the Central American 
offshore waters, with the exception of gentle southeast winds 
over the outer offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador. Seas
are 5 to 7 ft elsewhere over the Central American offshore 
waters. Gentle to moderate southerly winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft
due to long-period south to southwest swell continue offshore 
Ecuador and near the Galapagos Islands.

For the forecast, northeast to east winds will pulse to fresh to
strong speeds at the Gulf of Papagayo region during the late 
night and early morning hours through Thu night. Gentle winds at 
the Gulf of Panama will be at moderate to locally fresh speeds 
during this same time period. Rough seas off Ecuador will 
gradually subside to moderate by Thu. Elsewhere, light to gentle 
winds will continue through the weekend. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A weak high pressure center of 1019 mb is near 26N126W. The
pressure gradient between the high pressure and lower pressure 
in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate to fresh trade
winds from 08N to 16N between 111W and 121W and from north of 
the ITCZ to 18N between 121W and 140W. Seas associated to the
trade winds are 4 to 7 ft, except for slightly higher seas of 
6 to 8 ft west of 134W and from 04N to 18N. The combination of 
long-period northwest swell and shorter period trade wind 
generated waves over the western part of the area is sustaining 
the higher seas found there as noted in the latest altimeter 
satellite data passes over that part of the area. South of the 
ITCZ, gentle to moderate east to southeast winds are present 
along with seas of 4 to 6 ft.

Weak low pressure of 1019 mb is analyzed at 31N127W, with a
trough extending southwestward to 28N128W and to near 26N134W. 
Isolated showers are possible north of 28N and east of the trough
to 126W. Mostly fresh northwest to north winds are southwest of 
the low to near 29N131W. Seas with these winds are about 6 to 8 
ft.

For the forecast, the aforementioned trade winds are forecast 
to increase to fresh to occasionally strong speeds by Thu as 
stronger high pressure builds north of the region. Seas with 
these winds are expected to build to between 7 and 9 ft. The 
weak low pressure is forecast to move in a general eastward 
motion through Wed evening as it weakens further. Moderate to
fresh north winds are expected north of 28N and between 123W 
and 127W by that time along with seas of about 5 to 7 ft.

$$
Aguirre

No Storms to Report