SPC AC 200048
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0748 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024
Valid 200100Z - 201200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe threat appears minimal with thunderstorms tonight.
...01z Update...
Very isolated thunderstorms continue this evening across the
southern Appalachian region into the Carolinas. This activity
developed in large part due to strong boundary-layer heating in
conjunction with frontal forcing and orographic influences. However,
nocturnal cooling and weak large-scale forcing favor gradual
weakening over the next few hours. While a few flashes of lightning
will be noted with the most robust updrafts, the probability of
severe appears too low to warrant a MRGL risk overnight.
Upstream, weak mid-level short-wave trough is advancing across far
west TX. This feature will encourage weak LLJ across the Edwards
Plateau later this evening, and a corridor of focused low-level warm
advection will become established from northwest TX into the Red
River region late. Elevated thunderstorms will develop along this
zone, and while hail can't be ruled out with the strongest storms,
the risk of hail, in excess of 1 inch, appears too low to warrant
severe probabilities.
..Darrow.. 04/20/2024
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
SPC AC 191652
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1152 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024
Valid 201200Z - 211200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF
CENTRAL TEXAS AND FROM SOUTHERN ALABAMA ACROSS GEORGIA AND INTO
SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA...
...SUMMARY...
Marginally severe storms capable of strong wind gusts and hail will
be possible on Saturday across much of central Texas, and during the
afternoon from southern Alabama across parts of Georgia and into
southern South Carolina.
...Synopsis...
An upper trough will move east from the Great Lakes into the
Northeast, as the parent upper low deepens over Hudson Bay. Moderate
westerly flow aloft will remain from the central Plains to the East
Coast, with a low-latitude wave moving from AZ/NM across the
southern Plains through Saturday night.
At the surface, high pressure will extend south and eastward across
much of the central and eastern CONUS, with a front from the coastal
Carolinas to the northern Gulf Coast and into southern TX. A moist
air mass will remain south of this boundary in TX, where lift north
of the boundary will lead to increase rain and thunderstorms.
...TX...
Primarily elevated thunderstorms are likely through much of the day
over parts of central and northern TX, with activity extending east
toward northern MS. This activity will be supported by modest warm
advection just above the cool post-frontal air mass. Instability may
still be substantial, especially just north of the surface front. As
such, a few hail reports will be possible over a relatively large
area, with a conditional risk of strong gusts closer to the front.
...Coastal SC into southern GA and AL...
The surface boundary will extend roughly from coastal SC across GA
and into southern AL during the afternoon, with strong heating
expected. Although gradual drying will occur due to westerly flow,
strong heating and sufficient moisture will still result in an
unstable air mass, and eastward-moving storms producing outflow are
anticipated. Given the steep low-level lapse rates, 1000-1500 SBCAPE
and sufficient deep-layer mean winds, isolated damaging gusts will
be possible.
..Jewell.. 04/19/2024
WUUS02 PTSDY2
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
SPC AC 190730
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024
Valid 211200Z - 221200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms will be possible on Sunday across parts of
the Gulf Coast region, but no severe threat is expected.
...DISCUSSION...
An upper-level trough is forecast to move across the central Gulf
Coast states on Sunday, as a cold front moves from the coastal areas
into the northern Gulf of Mexico. Isolated thunderstorms may develop
near the front early in the day. Other post-frontal storms may
develop in parts of the Gulf Coast states during the afternoon.
Instability across the Gulf Coast is expected to be very weak
limiting any potential for severe storms.
..Broyles.. 04/19/2024
WUUS03 PTSDY3
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z
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