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Local Area Forecast Discussion

000
FXUS66 KSTO 210915
AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
215 AM PDT Sat Apr 21 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry and warm through early next week. Chance of a few showers or
thunderstorms over the mountains by mid to late next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Flat ridging over the area today will result in another day of
warm temperatures and clear skies. Widespread 80s expected in the
valley with 70s in the foothills and 60s in the mountains. Breezy
north winds will develop this afternoon, mainly across the
northern Sac Valley. Could see a few gusts to 20-25 mph.

Weak trough moves across the area on Sunday, but moisture is
nowhere to be seen. Latest model runs have come in drier,
therefore have removed precip chances across far northern portions
of the area that was in the previous forecast. Ridging then builds
back in for Monday and Tuesday with afternoon temperatures topping
out 8-15 degrees above normal. Redding Airport may come close or
break daily records both days as record maxes are soft in the
upper 80s. Elsewhere, record maxes are in the 90s so not expecting
record-breaking highs there. Model solutions continue to keep the
closed upper low pretty far off shore through mid-week. Have
tempered back convective chances a bit on Tuesday, though cannot
rule out a stray shower or thunderstorm near the Sierra crest
during the PM hours. CEO

&


.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Wednesday THROUGH Saturday)
Upper ridge forecast to hold across the region through the middle
of next week as a deep closed low remains over the eastern
Pacific. Conditions will be warm and dry except along the crest of
the northern Sierra where enough moisture and instability is
forecast to be present for some isolated diurnal showers and
thunderstorms.

Some uncertainty late in the week, but consensus of the models
presently is for the low to lift out toward the PacNW Friday and
Saturday. Cooler and breezier conditions would return to interior
NorCal with much of the shower and thunderstorm activity expected
to occur to our north and east.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions at the TAF sites the next 24 hours. Winds
generally around 10 kts or less except vicinity Delta with
southwesterly winds 10-20 kts.

&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$





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