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Local Area Forecast Discussion

000
FXUS66 KSTO 221118
AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
418 AM PDT Fri Sep 22 2017


.SYNOPSIS...
Unseasonably cool weather system will bring mountain rain and
snow showers this afternoon. A few inches of snow are possible at
high elevations south of highway 50. Turning warmer and drier
from this weekend into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Unseasonably cold trough has shifted east into the Great Basin
with upper low developing over northern Nevada. Disturbance will
drop south behind low along the Sierra late Today with another
quick shot of snow above 6500 feet. Expect 2 to 3 inches for areas
south of highway 50 and around an inch northward over interstate
80. Instability will also increase over the central Sierra and
have added isolated thunderstorm chances south of highway
50...best chances look to be over eastern Calaveras and Tuolumne
counties. Liquid precip amounts should be 0.20-0.40 central Sierra
with 0.10 or less northward. Valley locations will remain
dry...although high temperatures will be about 10 degrees below
normal in the mid 70`s.

Upper low will shift west into Utah Saturday leaving NorCal in a
much drier...but breezy north flow. This will cause temps to warm
back into the 80`s at valley locations Saturday and Sunday. North
wind gusts from 20 to 25 mph will be possible over the northern
and central Sacramento valley. The warm-up will continue into
Monday with reading at or near 90 degrees for many locations...as
Pacific ridge builds eastward.

&&
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Tuesday THROUGH Friday)

While recent cool temperatures and even mountain snow might make
it seem like summer is over(and the calendar too), above normal
temperatures and dry weather are expected next week. High
confidence continues in this pattern to continue through the week,
and possibly into even into next weekend. Valley high temperatures
are forecast to be in the lower 90s for Tuesday through Thursday,
extending into the mid 90s for Friday. While these temperatures
are 5 to 10 degrees above normal, record highs for those dates are
not expected. Triple digit highs would required for records, and
this kind of heat is not anticipated.

Breezy north winds are forecast to continue through Thursday next
week, particularly early in the week. These winds will act to
warm and dry the area, creating an elevated fire risk. No
precipitation is expected, even in the mountains. EK/HEC
&&

.AVIATION...


VFR conditions expected for Valley TAF sites for the next 24
hours with scattered mid level clouds. Scattered
mountain/foothill rain showers today and isolated afternoon
thunderstorms over the Sierra south of Lake Tahoe. Snow showers
are possible above 5500 feet, especially this morning in the
Sierra. Northerly winds expected to develop this afternoon around
5 to 10 kts. EK

&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$





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