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U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 190656

   Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0156 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024

   Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...

   ...Synopsis...
   A split flow regime will develop over the U.S. throughout the day
   with a belt of northwesterly flow in the Midwest and subtropical
   westerlies at lower latitudes. No widespread areas of Elevated
   fire-weather conditions are expected, although some localized gusty
   and dry conditions may develop in portions of the Appalachians and
   High Plains.

   ...Ohio River Valley southward through western NC and SC...
   As a cold front continues to push southeastward through the East
   Coast and FL Peninsula, locally stronger post-frontal surface winds
   could yield Elevated fire-weather conditions in regions of locally
   drier fuels. The lowest relative humidities are expected from the
   Ohio River Valley southward through western NC and SC along the
   eastern slopes of the Appalachians. Low confidence exists regarding
   the overlap of strongest surface winds, drier conditions, and
   receptive fuels, precluding any Elevated areas at this time.

   ...Southern High Plains...
   The surface pattern across the Southern High Plains will be
   influenced by steady, post-frontal high pressure along the Gulf
   Coast and a developing, mid-level cutoff low over the Four Corners
   region. This will yield gradual moisture return across the Southern
   Plains, bounded to the west by drier southwesterly flow. Locally
   windy (around 15+ mph) and dry (relative humidities around 20-25
   percent) conditions may develop across portions of the TX/OK
   Panhandles. Some precipitation has occurred across the region in the
   last few days, but locally drier fuels may support pockets of
   heightened fire-weather conditions on Tuesday afternoon.

   ..Flournoy.. 03/19/2024
      

U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook


   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 190657

   Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0157 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024

   Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

   ...Synopsis...
   A split-flow regime will support separate regions of possible
   fire-weather conditions on Wednesday. Elevated fire-weather
   conditions are possible across portions of the southeastern NM and
   West TX on Wednesday afternoon. Localized areas of dry, windy
   conditions are also possible across the Mid-Atlantic, although lower
   confidence in fuel levels currently precludes any Elevated areas.

   ...Southeastern NM and West TX...
   An initial cutoff low is expected to shift eastward throughout the
   day on Wednesday, yielding westerly flow aloft and a deepening
   surface cyclone near the NM/TX border. This will yield prolonged
   westerly surface flow up to around 15-20 mph and relative humidities
   dropping to around 15 percent. Current guidance suggests fuels are
   not at critical levels, but much of the region has not measured any
   precipitation in the last two weeks. Predictability is slightly
   lower due to the nature of the cutoff low and timing of the
   eastward-ejecting trough. However, confidence is sufficient to
   introduce an Elevated area representing the location of driest and
   windiest conditions on Wednesday afternoon.

   ...Mid-Atlantic...
   Gusty, post-frontal conditions will persist throughout the day on
   Wednesday across the Mid-Atlantic. The driest conditions are
   currently expected in central VA, where relative humidities around
   25-30 percent are possible amidst surface winds of 10-15 mph.
   Pockets of drier fuels may support locally higher fire-weather
   conditions, but relatively low confidence precludes an Elevated area
   at this time.

   ..Flournoy.. 03/19/2024


U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook


   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 182040

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0340 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024

   Valid 201200Z - 261200Z

   Fire weather concerns are possible during the middle of the current
   work week as well as over the weekend, though confidence in this
   potential is currently too limited to introduce risk probabilities. 

   ...D3/Wednesday - Mid-Atlantic...
   The upper shortwave trough currently over southern Canada is
   forecast to propagate to the southeast over the next 48-72 hours,
   reaching the Atlantic coast by late afternoon D3/Wednesday. This
   will establish a westerly offshore flow regime from the
   central/southern Appalachians into the Mid-Atlantic region. With
   little precipitation anticipated with this system, the combination
   of breezy downslope winds with an influx of dry air may support
   regional fire weather concerns. Elevated fire weather conditions are
   probable, and localized critical conditions are possible in the lee
   of the higher terrain. However, confidence in regional details
   remains too limited to introduce highlights. 

   ...D3/Wednesday and D7/Sunday - Southern High Plains...
   The meandering upper low currently over the Southwest is forecast to
   migrate into the southern Plains on D3/Wednesday. As this occurs,
   weak cyclogenesis over the Plains should induce downslope westerly
   flow off the southern Rockies into parts of eastern NM and southwest
   TX. This may allow for areas of elevated to critical fire weather
   conditions, though weak mid-level winds associated with the
   low-amplitude wave should limit the potential for substantial,
   widespread fire concerns. 

   Long-range guidance continues to show an upper pattern regime change
   by the upcoming weekend. Shortwave troughing should become
   established over the western CONUS by Saturday with some
   deterministic solutions showing the progression of the upper wave
   into the Four Corners region by Sunday. This synoptic regime will
   favor the development of a strong lee cyclone over the central High
   Plains with an accompanying swath of dry/windy conditions across
   eastern NM and southwest/west TX behind a sharpening dryline. This
   is a typical fire weather regime for this region, and critical fire
   weather conditions are likely if this pattern is realized. However,
   long-range ensemble analyses show that the timing/progression of the
   upper wave in deterministic solutions may be too fast compared to
   most ensemble clusters. Probabilities are withheld for this forecast
   due to the inherent uncertainty at this time range, but if
   ensemble/deterministic solutions come into better agreement
   regarding the timing of the upper wave, risk probabilities will be
   introduced.

   ..Moore.. 03/18/2024
      




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