U.S. & Canada 00-UTC 48 Hour Surface Smoke Forecast
Map is in operation from early April through October 31
U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 190656
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0156 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024
Valid 191200Z - 201200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis...
A split flow regime will develop over the U.S. throughout the day
with a belt of northwesterly flow in the Midwest and subtropical
westerlies at lower latitudes. No widespread areas of Elevated
fire-weather conditions are expected, although some localized gusty
and dry conditions may develop in portions of the Appalachians and
High Plains.
...Ohio River Valley southward through western NC and SC...
As a cold front continues to push southeastward through the East
Coast and FL Peninsula, locally stronger post-frontal surface winds
could yield Elevated fire-weather conditions in regions of locally
drier fuels. The lowest relative humidities are expected from the
Ohio River Valley southward through western NC and SC along the
eastern slopes of the Appalachians. Low confidence exists regarding
the overlap of strongest surface winds, drier conditions, and
receptive fuels, precluding any Elevated areas at this time.
...Southern High Plains...
The surface pattern across the Southern High Plains will be
influenced by steady, post-frontal high pressure along the Gulf
Coast and a developing, mid-level cutoff low over the Four Corners
region. This will yield gradual moisture return across the Southern
Plains, bounded to the west by drier southwesterly flow. Locally
windy (around 15+ mph) and dry (relative humidities around 20-25
percent) conditions may develop across portions of the TX/OK
Panhandles. Some precipitation has occurred across the region in the
last few days, but locally drier fuels may support pockets of
heightened fire-weather conditions on Tuesday afternoon.
..Flournoy.. 03/19/2024
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U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 190657
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0157 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024
Valid 201200Z - 211200Z
...Synopsis...
A split-flow regime will support separate regions of possible
fire-weather conditions on Wednesday. Elevated fire-weather
conditions are possible across portions of the southeastern NM and
West TX on Wednesday afternoon. Localized areas of dry, windy
conditions are also possible across the Mid-Atlantic, although lower
confidence in fuel levels currently precludes any Elevated areas.
...Southeastern NM and West TX...
An initial cutoff low is expected to shift eastward throughout the
day on Wednesday, yielding westerly flow aloft and a deepening
surface cyclone near the NM/TX border. This will yield prolonged
westerly surface flow up to around 15-20 mph and relative humidities
dropping to around 15 percent. Current guidance suggests fuels are
not at critical levels, but much of the region has not measured any
precipitation in the last two weeks. Predictability is slightly
lower due to the nature of the cutoff low and timing of the
eastward-ejecting trough. However, confidence is sufficient to
introduce an Elevated area representing the location of driest and
windiest conditions on Wednesday afternoon.
...Mid-Atlantic...
Gusty, post-frontal conditions will persist throughout the day on
Wednesday across the Mid-Atlantic. The driest conditions are
currently expected in central VA, where relative humidities around
25-30 percent are possible amidst surface winds of 10-15 mph.
Pockets of drier fuels may support locally higher fire-weather
conditions, but relatively low confidence precludes an Elevated area
at this time.
..Flournoy.. 03/19/2024
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 182040
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0340 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024
Valid 201200Z - 261200Z
Fire weather concerns are possible during the middle of the current
work week as well as over the weekend, though confidence in this
potential is currently too limited to introduce risk probabilities.
...D3/Wednesday - Mid-Atlantic...
The upper shortwave trough currently over southern Canada is
forecast to propagate to the southeast over the next 48-72 hours,
reaching the Atlantic coast by late afternoon D3/Wednesday. This
will establish a westerly offshore flow regime from the
central/southern Appalachians into the Mid-Atlantic region. With
little precipitation anticipated with this system, the combination
of breezy downslope winds with an influx of dry air may support
regional fire weather concerns. Elevated fire weather conditions are
probable, and localized critical conditions are possible in the lee
of the higher terrain. However, confidence in regional details
remains too limited to introduce highlights.
...D3/Wednesday and D7/Sunday - Southern High Plains...
The meandering upper low currently over the Southwest is forecast to
migrate into the southern Plains on D3/Wednesday. As this occurs,
weak cyclogenesis over the Plains should induce downslope westerly
flow off the southern Rockies into parts of eastern NM and southwest
TX. This may allow for areas of elevated to critical fire weather
conditions, though weak mid-level winds associated with the
low-amplitude wave should limit the potential for substantial,
widespread fire concerns.
Long-range guidance continues to show an upper pattern regime change
by the upcoming weekend. Shortwave troughing should become
established over the western CONUS by Saturday with some
deterministic solutions showing the progression of the upper wave
into the Four Corners region by Sunday. This synoptic regime will
favor the development of a strong lee cyclone over the central High
Plains with an accompanying swath of dry/windy conditions across
eastern NM and southwest/west TX behind a sharpening dryline. This
is a typical fire weather regime for this region, and critical fire
weather conditions are likely if this pattern is realized. However,
long-range ensemble analyses show that the timing/progression of the
upper wave in deterministic solutions may be too fast compared to
most ensemble clusters. Probabilities are withheld for this forecast
due to the inherent uncertainty at this time range, but if
ensemble/deterministic solutions come into better agreement
regarding the timing of the upper wave, risk probabilities will be
introduced.
..Moore.. 03/18/2024
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