ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 251920

   Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0220 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

   Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND
   SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO...

   No changes. See previous discussion below.

   ..Bentley.. 04/25/2024

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0114 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024/

   ...Synopsis...
   A midlevel low and attendant surface cyclone will advance
   northeastward from the central Plains into the Upper MS Valley. On
   the backside of this system, a belt of strong deep-layer
   west-southwesterly flow will persist across a post-dryline
   environment over southern NM and parts of the southern High Plains.
   This will favor another day of critical fire-weather conditions
   across the region during the afternoon. 

   ...Southern New Mexico and much of the Southern High Plains...
   Along the southwestern periphery of the primary surface cyclone, a
   tight pressure gradient will persist across the area. This, combined
   with boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft, will yield
   20-25 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with higher
   gusts). At the same time, continued downslope flow amid a dry
   antecedent air mass will contribute to 10-15 percent afternoon RH.
   As a result, critical fire-weather conditions are expected across
   southern NM and much of the southern High Plains, given increasingly
   dry fuels over the area.

      

   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 252121

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0421 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

   Valid 271200Z - 031200Z

   A strong mid-level trough will be present across the Southwest CONUS
   at the beginning of the period. This trough will shift into the
   Upper Midwest on Sunday/Monday. Beyond Monday a more zonal pattern
   should lead to relatively benign fire weather conditions for the day
   4-8 period.

   ...Day 3/Sat - Southern High Plains...
   A very strong mid-level jet streak will round the base of the
   mid-upper level trough and eject across the southern High Plains
   Saturday afternoon. A deeply mixed airmass is present across this
   region which will allow for some of this stronger flow to mix to the
   surface. In addition, a developing lee cyclone and the associated
   tightening of the surface pressure gradient will also aid in
   stronger winds at the surface. Relative humidity is expected to be
   around 8 to 12 percent with surface sustained winds around 25 to 35
   mph. While this technically meets the criteria for extremely
   critical fire weather conditions, it does not appear fuels are quite
   to the extremely critical fuel dryness needed to support true
   extremely critical fire weather. However, conditions will be
   monitored for this higher end potential.

   ...Day 4/Sunday - Southern High Plains...
   Some dry and breezy conditions are possible in the southern High
   Plains again on Sunday. These conditions should be mostly confined
   to southeast New Mexico and vicinity where stronger mid-level flow
   should be present and at least some weak lee cyclogenesis is
   possible with a passing weak mid-level shortwave trough.

   ..Bentley.. 04/25/2024