U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 181621
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1121 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024
Valid 181700Z - 191200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
No changes to the ongoing forecast.
..Wendt.. 04/18/2024
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0148 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024/
...Synopsis...
Zonal mid-level flow is expected over much of the US as a broad
low-amplitude trough moves over the central CONUS. Weak ridging is
expected farther south which will force stronger flow aloft to
remain displaced over the northern third of the country. At the
surface, a low will move eastward with the broad trough while a cold
front moves south over much of the Plains. Much cooler temperatures,
higher humidity, and weaker winds are expected within the
post-frontal air mass. The only exception to this may be across far
northeast NM and southern CO where the air mass is expected to
remain drier and could support a few hours of locally elevated
fire-weather concerns. Otherwise, fire-weather concerns appear
unlikely over much of the CONUS today.
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U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 181819
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0119 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024
Valid 191200Z - 201200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
No changes to the ongoing forecast.
..Wendt.. 04/18/2024
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024/
...Synopsis...
Generally zonal flow will continue over the US ahead of a subtle
southern stream trough over northern Mexico. At the surface, a
back-door cold front will move into the southern high Plains and
Rockies as high pressure intensifies over the central CONUS. With
upslope trajectories, cooler temperatures, and weak winds, little
overlap of dry and breezy conditions is expected over the southern
High Plains. Fire-weather concerns should remain low for most areas.
Portions of the Southwest and southern Great Basin are expected to
generally remain dry. But, at present, fuels are not receptive and
winds are forecast to remain modest limiting the potential for
fire-weather concerns.
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 182041
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0341 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024
Valid 201200Z - 261200Z
Through the middle of next week, models suggest that the upper-level
flow pattern will be quasi-zonal across the CONUS. The strongest
upper-level winds will remain across then northern tier states
during that same period. For the middle/latter portions of next
week, models have suggested that mean troughing will set up in the
West. At the surface, after an surge of cooler air reaches into the
northern/central Gulf this weekend, some return flow is likely to
occur into the southern Plains by the middle of next week. Between
cooler temperatures as well as recent/expected precipitation, fire
weather concerns will generally be minimal for most locations. Dry
weather is expected across parts of the Southwest where fuels
continue to dry. As troughing develops in the West, an increase in
surface winds would occur. Depending on fuel receptiveness by
mid/late next week, some increase in fire weather concerns could
occur.
..Wendt.. 04/18/2024
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