U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL FNUS22 KWNS 290553 Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 AM CDT Fri Mar 29 2024 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND THE WESTERN OK/TX PANHANDLES.... ...Synopsis... Mid-level flow will strengthen across the Southwest on Saturday as a trough deepens and starts to shift east. This strong mid-level flow will overspread a deeply mixed airmass across the southern High Plains and result in surface winds of 20 to 25 mph and relative humidity in the single digits. Dry and windy conditions on Friday will dry fuels and increase fuel receptiveness by Saturday with all fine fuels likely critically dry across portions of northeast New Mexico into the western TX/OK Panhandles. ..Bentley.. 03/29/2024
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL FNUS28 KWNS 282143 Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0443 PM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024 Valid 301200Z - 051200Z Zonal flow aloft will quickly amplify ahead of a Pacific trough forecast to move onshore this weekend. Strong southwesterly flow will overspread the Southwest and southern high Plains, deepening a surface low over the southern Rockies. Strong surface winds are expected over much of the southern Plains along with an increasingly warm and dry air mass. As the upper-level system moves east, strong winds and lower RH will continue into early next week before a cold front moves south. Critical fire-weather concerns appear likely this weekend and early next week. ...Southern High Plains... Critical fire-weather conditions appear likely this weekend and into early next week as the main wave of the aforementioned Pacific trough moves over the southern Plains. Accompanied by a powerful 80-100 kt mid-level jet streak, strong lee cyclogenesis is expected over southeastern CO. The enhanced flow aloft and strong low-level pressure gradient will help drive 25-35 mph sustained surface winds across parts of the TX Panhandle, eastern NM and western OK. Dry downslope winds and warm temperatures behind a dryline/lee trough should also support widespread humidity values below 15%. The overlap of strong winds and several hours of hot and dry surface conditions will be favorable for widespread critical fire-weather concerns, especially D5/Sun. Fire-weather concerns will likely continue into D6/Mon as the upper trough and surface low move to the east. Confidence on the coverage and duration of critical fire-weather concerns is lower owing to uncertainty on a potential frontal passage. However, gusty winds and lower humidity still appear likely over southern portions of the TX Panhandle into southeastern NM and west TX. Through the remainder of next week, fire-weather concerns appear much lower as the cold front is forecast to move southeastward ushering in a colder air mass. ..Lyons.. 03/28/2024
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