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U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 281628

   Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1128 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024

   Valid 281700Z - 291200Z

   ...17z Update...
   No major changes have been assessed to the outlook. The Elevated
   area was expanded slightly south and east across parts of the TX Big
   Bend. Here, southerly surface winds of 15-20 mph will briefly
   overlap with RH below 20%. Brief elevated fire-weather conditions
   are possible given recent drying of fuels.

   ..Lyons.. 03/28/2024

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0135 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024/

   ...Synopsis...
   Surface lee troughing will intensify over the southern High Plains
   today in tandem with an increase in mid-level flow/upper-level
   support. Dry downslope flow is expected across the southern High
   Plains during the afternoon. Across eastern New Mexico into western
   Texas, 15-25 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds and 10-20
   percent RH atop modestly receptive fuels will support some wildfire
   spread potential, necessitating the maintenance of Elevated
   highlights.
      

U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook


   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 281847

   Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0147 PM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024

   Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO...

   ...19z Update...
   Added critical area for parts of eastern NM. Confidence has
   increased that more widespread winds of 20-25 mph will overlap with
   RH below 10% for several hours Friday afternoon. While some
   uncertainty regarding fuel states remains, drying today and delayed
   green up in fine fuels west of the Caprock should support some
   critical fire-weather risk across parts of eastern NM and
   potentially the TX Panhandle. Elsewhere, southwest surface winds and
   low humidity should support widespread elevated fire-weather
   potential over much of the southern High Plains and into southern
   CO. See the previous discussion for more information.

   ..Lyons.. 03/28/2024

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0154 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024/

   ...Synopsis...
   Surface cyclone development is expected across the southern High
   Plains as a mid-level trough amplifies across the Southwest tomorrow
   (Friday). Downslope flow will increase in the process, with much of
   the southern High Plains experiencing widespread 10-15 percent RH
   and 15-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds by afternoon peak
   heating. Given multiple days of dry and windy conditions, fine fuels
   will continue to cure further, supporting at least widespread
   "high-end" Elevated conditions, especially over eastern New Mexico
   into western Texas. If fuel receptiveness increases at a greater
   rate than currently anticipated, Critical highlights may be needed
   in future outlooks.


U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook


   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 282143

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0443 PM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024

   Valid 301200Z - 051200Z

   Zonal flow aloft will quickly amplify ahead of a Pacific trough
   forecast to move onshore this weekend. Strong southwesterly flow
   will overspread the Southwest and southern high Plains, deepening a
   surface low over the southern Rockies. Strong surface winds are
   expected over much of the southern Plains along with an increasingly
   warm and dry air mass. As the upper-level system moves east, strong
   winds and lower RH will continue into early next week before a cold
   front moves south. Critical fire-weather concerns appear likely this
   weekend and early next week.

   ...Southern High Plains...
   Critical fire-weather conditions appear likely this weekend and into
   early next week as the main wave of the aforementioned Pacific
   trough moves over the southern Plains. Accompanied by a powerful
   80-100 kt mid-level jet streak, strong lee cyclogenesis is expected
   over southeastern CO. The enhanced flow aloft and strong low-level
   pressure gradient will help drive 25-35 mph sustained surface winds
   across parts of the TX Panhandle, eastern NM and western OK. Dry
   downslope winds and warm temperatures behind a dryline/lee trough
   should also support widespread humidity values below 15%. The
   overlap of strong winds and several hours of hot and dry surface
   conditions will be favorable for widespread critical fire-weather
   concerns, especially D5/Sun.

   Fire-weather concerns will likely continue into D6/Mon as the upper
   trough and surface low move to the east. Confidence on the coverage
   and duration of critical fire-weather concerns is lower owing to
   uncertainty on a potential frontal passage. However, gusty winds and
   lower humidity still appear likely over southern portions of the TX
   Panhandle into southeastern NM and west TX. Through the remainder of
   next week, fire-weather concerns appear much lower as the cold front
   is forecast to move southeastward ushering in a colder air mass.

   ..Lyons.. 03/28/2024
      




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