U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 231607
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1107 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024
Valid 231700Z - 241200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes
or additions made.
..Squitieri.. 04/23/2024
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0128 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024/
...Synopsis...
A midlevel trough will advance east-southeastward from the Midwest
toward the Northeast through the period, while an upper ridge
encompasses much of the West. On the backside of the midlevel
trough, a post-frontal air mass will infiltrate the northern and
central Plains, where breezy/gusty northerly surface winds are
expected. Over portions of southern NE and KS, these winds could
briefly overlap 20-30 percent afternoon RH, favoring locally
elevated fire-weather conditions -- given receptive fuels across the
area. However, these conditions appear too brief and marginal for
Elevated highlights at this time.
Farther west, dry/breezy conditions are expected across the
Southwest during the afternoon. However, fuels are generally not
supportive of large fires at this time.
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U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 231913
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0213 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024
Valid 241200Z - 251200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
The previous forecast remains unchanged.
..Squitieri.. 04/23/2024
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0129 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024/
...Synopsis...
A low-latitude midlevel trough accompanied by strong southwesterly
flow aloft will impinge on the Southwest, where dry antecedent
conditions will be in place. This will promote a fairly expansive
area of dry/breezy conditions across the region; however, fuels are
generally not supportive of large-fire spread at this time.
Elsewhere, a limited overlap of warm/dry/breezy conditions will
temper fire-weather concerns.
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 232024
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0324 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024
Valid 251200Z - 011200Z
An active fire weather pattern will become situated over the
southern High Plains late this week through the weekend. The passage
of multiple mid-level troughs will encourage surface cyclone
development and the eastward surge of a dryline each day
Thursday-Sunday along the southern High Plains. Critically dry and
windy conditions will become situated behind the dryline each day,
with 70% Critical probabilities maintained where very windy and dry
surface conditions will coincide for several hours during the
afternoon. Furthermore, locally Extremely Critical surface winds/RH
cannot be ruled out over portions of eastern New Mexico into far
western Texas for Day 3/Thursday or Day 5/Saturday, when the core
mid-level jet stream from both upper-level troughs overspread the
region. By early next week, the ejection of these mid-level troughs,
in favor of upper ridging, will encourage a more quiescent fire
weather pattern over the southern High Plains, though dry surface
conditions should persist.
..Squitieri.. 04/23/2024
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