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SPC Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

Forecast Discussion - Day 4-8

   ACUS48 KWNS 190958
   SPC AC 190958

   Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0358 AM CST Mon Feb 19 2018

   Valid 221200Z - 271200Z

   Better agreement/consistency is evident at this time with respect to
   various medium-range model runs through a majority of the day 4-8
   period, as compared to 24 hours prior.  Models in general depict
   that a major short-wave trough -- digging across California and the
   Great Basin day 4 (Thursday) will eject east across the Desert
   Southwest/southern Rockies day 5, and then the central and southern
   Plains day 6 (Saturday).  While this feature is progged to
   weaken/deamplify with time due to persistence of southeastern U.S.
   ridging, surface lee cyclogenesis is expected over the southern High
   Plains early in the day which will deepen/shift quickly
   east-northeast into the Ohio Valley/Midwest overnight.  Ahead of
   this system, low-level moisture return from the Gulf of Mexico
   should prove sufficient for at least some warm-sector CAPE
   development which -- combined with what should be a favorable
   background lower- and middle-tropospheric wind field -- suggests
   that some severe weather risk may evolve Saturday.  While degree of
   instability may limit risk to some degree, ample evidence exists to
   suggest initial introduction of 15% severe weather probability from
   the Arklatex vicinity east across parts of the lower Mississippi and
   into the Tennessee Valleys.  

   As the weakening upper system shifts quickly east-northeast across
   the lower Great Lakes region day 7 (Sunday), expect the trailing
   surface front to weaken and become oriented increasingly
   west-to-east across the Gulf Coast region, suggestive of diminished
   severe potential.  In addition, model differences increasing through
   the end of the period result in reduced confidence with respect to
   the convective forecast through early next week.

   ..Goss.. 02/19/2018



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