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SPC Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

Forecast Discussion - Day 4-8

   ACUS48 KWNS 190653
   SPC AC 190653

   Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0153 AM CDT Thu Oct 19 2017

   Valid 221200Z - 271200Z

   Medium-range models are in good agreement through the day3 period
   then begin to diverge significantly by Sunday. Remnants of a likely
   organized squall line should advance across the central/southern
   Plains into portions of the lower MS Valley/upper TX Coast Sunday.
   However, ECMWF/GFS/Canadian are considerably different in their
   strength/placement of the upper trough by day4 and considerable
   convective overturning could prove problematic in predictability of
   organized convection. Thunderstorms should develop across the
   undisturbed warm sector, in advance of the trough, day4-5 but too
   much uncertainty exists at this time to warrant an outlook.

   ..Darrow.. 10/19/2017



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