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SPC Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

Forecast Discussion - Day 4-8


   ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
   ACUS48 KWNS 120956
   SPC AC 120956

   Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0356 AM CST Tue Dec 12 2017

   Valid 151200Z - 201200Z

   ...DISCUSSION...
   Although there are differences between the GFS/ECMWF with the
   timing, amplification and trough orientations across the contiguous
   U.S. for much of the medium range, an overall agreement exists with
   a change in the upper air pattern.  The current ridge in the west
   and trough east of the Rockies is expected to evolve into a broad
   cyclonic flow regime by Day 5 /Saturday/ to zonal flow on Day 8
   /Tuesday/.  

   ...Day 6 (Sunday)...
   Models suggest a potential for thunderstorms across portions of the
   northwest Gulf coast into the lower MS Valley on Sunday.  Despite
   aforementioned model differences, even the more amplified ECMWF
   indicated surface-based storms would be confined to the coastal
   areas.  Poor lapse rates and weak instability should prove
   detrimental for robust/sustained updrafts, especially inland away
   from the coast.  These factors suggest the potential for severe
   storms is too low for a 15% probability.

   ..Peters.. 12/12/2017

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